Basketball

VIDEO: Futures Advice NBA Playoffs

Tuesday, 14 April, 2015

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The blog has been written on Zack’s advice for the NBA playoffs. He also decided to do a short video for those that would rather watch. Click below to watch. Any questions or feedback can be sent via email at notjustagame23@gmail.com or via twitter@cimini.

NBA Futures 2015 Discussion from Zack Cimini on Vimeo.

NBA Future Value Advice

Tuesday, 14 April, 2015

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It’s been a whirlwind year for me when it comes to futures. The future market in sports is one that often gets overlooked. If you’re in Vegas you may look at a futures sheet before a tournament, playoff, etc. Obviously the best value lies on grabbing a future before that period. Stretches of poor play, injuries, etc. will see market value rise on teams.

In the past year I’ve been able to hit the UConn Huskies at 35-1 in sweet 16 odds, San Antonio Spurs at 5-1 to win the NBA title(When they were down 2-1 to the Mavericks), and Duke/Tyus Jones MOP this past NCAA tournament. In MLB I missed on the Marlins at 100-1 and wavered from New England to Pittsburgh in the NFL. In college, I took a flyer on the Utah Utes early summer at 75-1.

It puts an extra dimension on handicapping. You can always find value out there if you look for the right book.

With the NBA playoffs about to start I’ve mentioned a team on twitter and YouTube videos that I like for a potential future. Eyes are of course on the top tier teams such as the Hawks, Cavs, Spurs, Warriors, and a few extra from the western conference. Value is not to be had with most of those teams. San Antonio’s boat has sailed drastically during their impressive double digit win-streak. But how much longer can those tired legs hold? Much like LeBron they’ve worn a lot of mileage on their legs. If it were not for a miracle Ray Allen three pointer they could be going for a three-peat title. I would not discount the Spurs but will not grab them at 2.5/3-1. They’d have to rise to the 5-1 level they were a year ago. Maybe that level creeps up again if they get down in a playoff series.

Value to me lies with the Chicago Bulls. There’s been so much negativity surrounding the Bulls cast and Derrick Rose. Rose, of course, has missed a large part of the last two seasons. He is back and all they need him to do is be a contributor. They have enough pieces now to be a contender with their bigs and improved play from their young players.

At 7/8-1 to win the Eastern Conference I love the value. Sure, currently they may face the Cavaliers in the second round, but what’s the difference now or later?

LeBron’s had his difficulties before when he faced the Bulls as a member of the Heat. They’ll pose a threat again on the interior with LeBron’s newly formed Cavaliers. It’s not a series that will be a cake walk. JR Smith’s three ball reign lately looks great, but lets not forget he lost the shot completely a playoff season with the Knicks.

There just is no value in my opinion on the Cavs at -200 or Hawks at plus 240.

Grab the Bulls at 7.5-1 and enjoy a solid NBA playoffs daily and weekly here at Notjustagame.com

Video: March Madness Recap and NBA Discussion

Thursday, 9 April, 2015

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A great season concluded Monday night in the college basketball season. Zack finished the season 124-91-5 ATS, and topped it off with his Duke futures (pre-season/pre-tourney) and Tyus Jones for MOP (25-1). Tuesday, Zack, John, and Jeff discussed their thoughts on the college basketball season and discuss the Eastern Conference in the NBA.

VIDEO: ATS FINAL FOUR PREVIEW MICHIGAN STATE VS DUKE

Saturday, 4 April, 2015

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One of the premier sports weekends is here; the Final Four. Set to start tomorrow around 6PM EST in Indianapolis is a matchup between Michigan State and Duke. Here is an ATS preview video from Zack, John, and Jeff. Best of luck, Saturday.

VIDEO: FINAL FOUR ATS PREVIEW WISCONSIN VS KENTUCKY

Saturday, 4 April, 2015

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It’s been a bit of a slow stretch for myself in terms of providing content/plays. That’s been based on March Madness and value as a whole. Expect more from myself as MLB starts here in just a few days and for the NBA playoffs. Series odds will draw interest from me for the NBA. As for Saturday, here is a Final Four ATS preview between Wisconsin and Kentucky.

SWEET 16 Wagering Advice

Wednesday, 25 March, 2015

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The stats out there of brackets being busted pales in comparison to how poorly the large percentage of sports bettors have done thus far. After just four days of tournament play the Las Vegas sports books are faring very well. That’s not shocking when the underdogs went 16-4 ATS to start the tournament (play-in games included). Going into the round of sweet 16 here are a few tips to avoid falling into the public trap again.

Don’t fall for a Cinderella story
The Cinderella stories of teams getting to the Elite 8 or beyond have captured March Madness for years. This year though there are not “true” slipper Cinderella teams out there. Wichita State has been in this spot before, Xavier has defeated teams they should have in this tournament, Michigan State is a 7th seed doing well against favorable matchups. Putting a cinderella slipper on any of these teams is not justified. This a year that all teams remaining are true contenders not cinderella’s.

Money Lines
This goes hand in hand with the last recommendation but I believe it needs to be separated. People can make decent money pinpointing money line scenarios and wagering. The week to do that was last week in the tournament. NC State paid a nice +350-+400 if you picked them over Villanova. There were countless others as well. In the sweet 16 there will be a lot of solid games but I believe the point spread will be a larger factor this week. Remember you need an outright underdog victory to score your ROI and plus payout. A one-point loss is not going to cut it. If you see value to take a money line you should value the points like many sports bettors do.

Too Late to Grab Michigan State

On my twitter account @cimini I suggested during Michigan State’s slump that they remind me of UConn’s 2011 and 2014 team. They were at 100-1 odds at the time. I didn’t put in the wager and probably won’t regret it. After all they’d still have to win the whole title. The final four is a different story but there is high money driving the Spartans currently. Right now they’re at 15-1 to win the title. I think that’s a bit far fetched and people that are piling on this future have missed the boat. Maybe it happens but when value has been shot down this much I’d gladly sit out.