Basketball

NCAAB: VCU SET TO RECOUP ATS LOSSES FOR BETTORS

Tuesday, 16 December, 2014

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VCU came into the 2014 campaign as an Atlantic 10 top rated team and one that has caught the eyes of several top college basketball analysts. I, myself had them ranked as a potential sleeper for a run in March. I still do. One of the things that people need to realize is just how much things can change for November until March. UConn showcased this as the most current example. Just a few weeks before the March Madness tournament they were defeated resoundingly by Louisville.

A team can grow in a quick matter. All that matters come March is seeding and the path of teams they face to get there.

For current ATS bettors, you’ve been extremely unsatisfied with VCU. They have only won two games ATS, one against Oregon and the other against Tennessee. Overall that makes them 2-6 ATS. The reason for this has been three keys in my eyes.

1. Their pressure havoc defense has been halted by poor back line defense. Teams are zipping the ball past the first wave and finding easy strides to the hoop for layups. This has been accomplished thanks to the teams they have faced having above average backcourts. That won’t last the entire season and Shaka Smart will amend his havoc defense a bit.

2. VCU’s offense at times can be stagnant. Half court execution has been better over their last few games. On the bench freshman Terry Larier and Justin Tillman are getting more and more comfortable offensively—this has to translate to the Rams havoc defense. Also sophomores JeQuan Lewis and Doug Brooks showed last year they’re capable of rising to the occasion—they just need to be more consistent.

3. Free Throw Shooting– This is VCU’s main culprit in their woes. They’ve always been a poor free throw shooting team. Against Northern Iowa though it was the difference in VCU gaining a win. Treveon Graham went 6 for 6 from the line and the team as a whole shot the ball better than Northern Iowa from the free throw line.

4. Leadership–This team has Treveon Graham, junior Melvin Johnson, Mo Allie-Cox,Jordan Burgess and defensive specialist Briante Weber. They’ve played on teams that were represented by VCU players that went to the Elite 8 a few seasons ago. They showed last year in quick stretches this team can turn a close game into a blowout.

COLLEGE BASKETBALL TUESDAY FREE PLAY: ASU/MARQUETTE TOTAL

Tuesday, 16 December, 2014

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Today’s Free Play: ASU vs Marquette Total

Play Under 132

Both of these teams are a contrast of each other. ASU lacks a defensive presence but has great shooters all over the floor. They lead the country in three point shooting with several players that have over performed. But they also haven’t faced a team as talented defensively as Marquette or ventured on the road (Once to Texas A@M) this season. Marquette is one of those teams you can count to have a dead stall of offense for at least two small stretches and possibly even a seven minute stretch. They still have a lot of hold overs from the Buzz Williams regime that preached defense. New transfer Matt Carlino is an ignition for offense but also takes plenty of bad shots that I’m sure ASU Coach Herb Sendek will have at the top of his scouting report. Take the under

COLLEGE BASKETBALL WEDNESDAY FREE PLAY TEMPLE VS ST. JOES

Wednesday, 3 December, 2014

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Zack is now a documented 19-3 on the season in college basketball. Be sure to check out his daily plays under today’s picks. For Wednesday he has a free play between St. Joes and Temple.

NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL BEST TITLE ODDS

Thursday, 13 November, 2014

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College basketball’s 2014-2015 season is here. Time just keeps flying but I can say over the years I have not lost my passion for college basketball. It truly is a special sport to watch and of course make some cash on. This year should be as exciting as ever. As I usually do, I like to layout three potential NCAA college basketball winners to showcase.

Best Odds on Favorite: Duke 10-1
Duke did lose Rodney Hood and Jabari Parker to the NBA. Both were only at the program for one season before departing for the lure of NBA money. Do not think for once that Duke isn’t capable of replacing them. Coach K knew Parker would be gone and Hood truly was the type of player that had maximized his college potential. The depth in the backcourt with upper classmen in Rasheed Sulaimon and Quinn Cook is impressive. Last year with Hood and Parker shooting the ball at a high rate Cook and Sulaimon did not get enough looks at the basket. That’ll change this season. The back line with Amile Jefferson, Marshall Plumlee, and freshman Jahlil Okafor will be tough for the ACC and rest of the country to contain.

Best Mid-Tier Team: Louisville 35-1
I truly do not have any idea why Louisville is this undervalued. Sure they lost Luke Hancock and Russ Smith but last year the team was bogged down a bit by both. Russ took a lot of bad shots and Hancock never looked healthy like he did the season prior. The balance just was not there with the unexpected release of Chane Behanon and Kevin Ware’s decision to transfer. This season the offense will go through Montreze Harrell. Harrell has been a force since his freshman year and will be the best big man in the country in 2014-2015. Add Coach Rick Pitino’s thriving defense and sophomore Terry Rozier’s improvements from his freshman season and you have another Pitino coached team that can make a deep run in March. The step up to the ACC will help this team endure bumps early and progress in conference play through March Madness.

Best LongShot: VCU Rams 60-1
In the early summer VCU was 40-1 to win the NCAA title. The drop down to 60-1 is peculiar to me. Obviously that move has more to do with people buying major conference teams as viable title winners. The Atlantic 10 last season was the most underrated conference in college hoops to me. VCU returns several players from last year’s team and I expect their defense to crank up even higher. Don’t be surprised if they get a true at-large bid this year and make a similar run that they did as an 11th seed years ago. There only current problem is scoring efficiency on the offensive end, but if they can alleviate those woes by March look out.

A LOOK AT THURSDAY’S NBA HOOPS ACTION

Thursday, 6 November, 2014

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TV ratings are a high indicator of where there true money is at. Just a few weeks ago Las Vegas finished in the top three on Monday Night football. Obviously with no major sports franchise residing in Las Vegas there is a main reason for this; finality in watching a legal sports wager fail or win.

Thursday ratings squarely will primarily be on tonight’s NFL Network broadcast of the NFC North matchup between the Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals. But lets not forget about tonight’s action on the court in the NBA.

There are two games in the Houston Rockets vs the San Antonio Spurs and the Dallas Mavericks vs the Portland Trailblazers.

Houston returns home after extending their undefeated win streak to five games. If you followed me on twitter you would have seen I said to play the over on the Rockets win total of 49.5 and the under on the Cavs of 58.5.

San Antonio meanwhile is out the gate a bit slow. They lost to the Suns a few nights ago and barely defeated the Atlanta Hawks last night. Tonight marks just the fourth game for San Antonio and will be on consecutive nights. Oddmakers always adjust the Spurs line because of Coach Poppovich’s penchant to rest his key players. Hence the Rockets are 4.5 point favorites tonight.

I think the Rockets are out to make a statement on this season and tonight. The loss of Chandler Parsons and Jeremy Lin has actually helped the Rockets. Young and rising star Terrence Jones has been able to move better without the basketball and is getting more shots as well. Trevor Arizona has been able to get open shots which he is capable of making with proper floor spacing.

In the night cap the Portland Trailblazers are coming off a resounding home win over the Cleveland Cavaliers. After a tied first quarter things unraveled quickly for the Cavaliers. Backcourt play was awful in that game from Dion Waiters and Kyrie Irving, while the Trailblazers could not miss on the offensive end. Several players scored in double digits as things got out of hand in the fourth quarter.

The line on this game favors the Trailblazers by just two points and has a total of 207.5. Portland is a team that typically does not put away teams which is tough betting for or against them on a consistent basis. But on a totals side of things you can find high value on the first half with them. They are one of the stronger teams at scoring a high amount of points in the first quarter.

Tonight I expect them to have their shots falling again and to feed off of Tuesday’s performance against the Cavaliers.

Play the Rockets -4 and the over first half on Dallas and the Portland Trailblazers, which is 104.5.

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NBA SATURDAY ATS

Saturday, 1 November, 2014

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*** Until further notice I will be giving out free ATS NBA plays at a higher rate than usual. This is a way of giving back to readers of Notjustagame.com. Most people want to thrive on both college and the NFL until January and forget about the NBA. Be sure to follow me on twitter@cimini and if interested in any ATS packages send me an email at notjustagame23@gmail.com

There are a gauntlet of NBA games tonight. Don’t let how the college football games go today sway your sports betting later today. In the NBA there are some key lines and plays I’ll discuss below here. Enjoy your Saturday. I love hearing feedback so shoot me an email or follow me on twitter as noted above.

Stay away games
Lakers vs Warriors -15
Inflation applies in all aspects of life. Value is as bad as it gets right now for or against the Lakers. Betting is all about value and if you can’t find it, why play it? Los Angeles is in complete disarray but hung in ATS against the Clippers.

Premium plays I’d play tonight
Phoenix Suns and Utah Jazz under 203.5
This young Utah Jazz team has some pieces in place while the Phoenix Suns continue to surprise folks. They’re 2-0 as they come off a win last night against San Antonio. That’s a huge win for this Suns team but I do not expect them to have their legs 100 percent tonight. As athletic as both of these teams are you have to expect 1 quarter or stretch of tough defense. This game figures to be a close battle and I think the money will come in on the under. One of the biggest mistakes bettors do on totals is getting swayed with the presumption of an “over” play on numbers in the 199-205 range.

Miami Heat -9 vs the Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia is going to hang in quarters versus NBA teams but it’s going to be an ugly battle to hang in games. Last year this 76ers team shocked Miami at home. That team was completely different with veteran players mixed with currently injured rookie of the year in Michael Carter-Williams. Miami has a clear obvious advantage here with veterans that remember the loss from a year ago. Expect Chris Bosh, Dwayne Wade, Chalmers and company to get out early in this one.