SWEET 16 Wagering Advice

Wednesday, 25 March, 2015

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The stats out there of brackets being busted pales in comparison to how poorly the large percentage of sports bettors have done thus far. After just four days of tournament play the Las Vegas sports books are faring very well. That’s not shocking when the underdogs went 16-4 ATS to start the tournament (play-in games included). Going into the round of sweet 16 here are a few tips to avoid falling into the public trap again.

Don’t fall for a Cinderella story
The Cinderella stories of teams getting to the Elite 8 or beyond have captured March Madness for years. This year though there are not “true” slipper Cinderella teams out there. Wichita State has been in this spot before, Xavier has defeated teams they should have in this tournament, Michigan State is a 7th seed doing well against favorable matchups. Putting a cinderella slipper on any of these teams is not justified. This a year that all teams remaining are true contenders not cinderella’s.

Money Lines
This goes hand in hand with the last recommendation but I believe it needs to be separated. People can make decent money pinpointing money line scenarios and wagering. The week to do that was last week in the tournament. NC State paid a nice +350-+400 if you picked them over Villanova. There were countless others as well. In the sweet 16 there will be a lot of solid games but I believe the point spread will be a larger factor this week. Remember you need an outright underdog victory to score your ROI and plus payout. A one-point loss is not going to cut it. If you see value to take a money line you should value the points like many sports bettors do.

Too Late to Grab Michigan State

On my twitter account @cimini I suggested during Michigan State’s slump that they remind me of UConn’s 2011 and 2014 team. They were at 100-1 odds at the time. I didn’t put in the wager and probably won’t regret it. After all they’d still have to win the whole title. The final four is a different story but there is high money driving the Spartans currently. Right now they’re at 15-1 to win the title. I think that’s a bit far fetched and people that are piling on this future have missed the boat. Maybe it happens but when value has been shot down this much I’d gladly sit out.


Friday, 13 March, 2015


Friday in the AAC hails another matchup between Temple and Memphis. Current odds have the point spread on Temple’s side as a three point favorite. Earlier this week, Jeff, Zack, and John discussed this matchup in advance from a Vegas perspective. Watch and listen to their takes on this afternoon’s matchup.

ATS ACC Preview: Syracuse vs NC State

Saturday, 7 March, 2015


The released finalized report and further imposed sanctions levied against Syracuse make Saturday’s finale even more interesting. NC State has opened as a six point favorite. Las Vegas handicappers, Jeff, Zack, and John discussed this matchup from a point spread vantage point on Tuesday. Get some insight by watching the YouTube video below.


Friday, 27 February, 2015

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It’s no secret that Villanova has been on an ATS tear all season long. The Big East has been down while Villanova is seemingly getting better. Jeff, Zack, and John discuss Saturday’s meeting between Villanova and Xavier from an ATS perspective.


Friday, 27 February, 2015


Saturday in the Big Ten, Michigan travels to face Maryland. The Terrapins are coming off an underdog home win against Wisconsin while Michigan also won as an underdog at home against Ohio State. See what Vegas handicappers John, Zack, and Jeff have to say on the game.


Friday, 20 February, 2015


Saturday in the Big Ten Michigan looks to right the ship as they face Ohio State. Is Michigan doomed from here on out with a continued slide, or can they play spoiler starting with this game against Ohio State? Watch as Zack, John, and Jeff discuss the matchup from an ATS perspective.