Posts tagged with “notjustagameblogspot.com”

Video: Discipline in Sports Betting

Thursday, 30 August, 2018

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Zack simplifies the process for bettors on how to handle discipline in sports betting.

Importance of Time Slots in Betting

Thursday, 16 August, 2018

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Time slots of sporting events are routine-based by conferences. The Pac-12 for instance typically has one mid-day game scheduled Saturday and an early evening game. All the rest of the Pac-12 conference games are filled in the typical 7PM Pacific Time slot.

I despise early games particularly because the conferences that open Saturday’s are not my main focus. Conferences such as the Big 12, Big 10, and non-prominent ACC schools are not attractive to me.

Knowing your main conferences to attack is a significant recipe for success ATS. If one is bouncing around conferences on a week-to-week basis you’re going to drown. Instead place your betting dollars on familiarity of teams you know that go hand in hand with scheduled games.

Attention to time slots of your key betting games is also helpful in burdening your bets appropriately. I for one never want to have action on more than two games that have the same start times. One can have a hard enough time tracking entire action versus their bets with one game. Adding multiple games at the same time just makes that even more difficult.

A sports betting Saturday can be ruined in a hurry if three or more games bet around the same start time turn for the worse. 0-3 or higher is like a boxer being KO’d in round one. Give yourself proper chances to recover when that bell hits for a later time slot.

Parlay opportunities also can take a huge hit if one splits a pair of games at the same start time. More often than not a later game wins for a bettor and your left without a hedge opportunity.

Leave the door open for a hedge opportunity that can be done via pre-game, half-time or even in-game wagering to close out a profitable parlay.

Sports Betting: Mind Trap Games Reading a Line

Monday, 6 August, 2018

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Finalizing a daily or weekly betting board is an art in itself. Bettors have their own style to a degree but one that never strays is a review of a line itself.

In prior ‘School of Handicapping’ videos I discussed different elements that can lead bettors to a poor or rewarding outcome.

Rounding out a board on certain weeks can be extra difficult. In the NFL season it can be a root cause as simple as extra teams on bye weeks, and in college football there can be difficult marquee matchups to read.

Within a routine bettors become accustomed to betting a certain amount of games. One may be a game away from their normal board that they seemingly can’t pinpoint what final game to take.

Some bettors may go into the betting day and wait to get a feel for the games before adding a play. This way of betting nine times out of ten will lead to a losing bet. One simply can’t get a feel for ATS value while watching current games with bets in progress; it’s just not possible.

Another avenue bettors fall for to finalize that final game is reviewing a games spread simply because of the number. All of us have fallen victim to it.

A steep underdog or a prime favorite gives the appeal bookmakers want. The draw of thinking why is a number what it is.

You’re suddenly just as bad as a bettor scooping up an odds sheet at a sportsbook. Drawn to the number instead of the matchup.

A prime example of this in college football last year was the Miami Hurricanes final regular season game against Clemson. The number did not stop rising prior to kickoff, which had some people thinking the value was on a 10-1 Hurricane team. Instead they were blown out 38-3.

A recent example in baseball would be the Arizona Diamondbacks with Zach Greinke on the mound as a steep favorite over the Giants and Madison Bumgarner. The line continued to go up on Greinke’s side with the end result being the Giants in a landslide road win.

In it’s own way these types of games should be referred to as mind trap forced bets.

Once you place the wager you’ll be thinking why did I bet a game that was not on my initial finalized board.

You don’t have to force a play to get to your weekly routine goal. Take each week in stride and you will have more plus weeks than negative.

Cardinals Veteran QB Routine an ATS Gem

Monday, 6 August, 2018

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Post the Jake Plummer era the Arizona Cardinals revamped their ways to a veteran mentality in key positions. Without a doubt they have been a fixture in the league for veteran running backs and quarterbacks over the last decade.

Backs have included Emmitt Smith, Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Rashard Mendenhall, and even Edgerrin James.

At quarterback it’s been much more simplistic. Aside from a stretch of utilizing Kevin Kolb and John Skelton it’s been three guys in Kurt Warner, Derek Anderson, and Carson Palmer.

All three were high ATS producers. Warner’s best stretch came post 2006 when he put the drafting of Matt Leinart to bed. Anderson’s stretch was much shorter (first five games) as he lasted just a year as starter with the Cardinals.

Aside from last season Carson Palmer’s prior four years with the Cardinals ATS numbers were top five. They were defeating the number so well that by 2016 value was seemingly against them every week.

A commonality to all of these eras was the proper offensive coordinator. Todd Haley led the Cardinals and Kurt Warner. Head Coach and play-caller Bruce Arians drove success with Carson Palmer.

Now a new veteran era begins with the same elements in-line as Warner and Palmer.

Both had injury issues with Palmer missing several stretches as a Bengal and Raider. Warner had a nagging hand injury that ended his tenure with the Rams and nearly cost him his backup spot with the New York Giants.

Can the Cardinals do it again with Sam Bradford? Numerous injuries have also plagued his career and this will be his fourth team overall.

Just as in prior veteran quarterback signings the Cardinals announced a new offensive coordinator in Mike McCoy.

McCoy’s runs with the Broncos and Chargers should fit Bradford’s abilities well.

Cardinals GM Steve Keim may have another hidden ATS pairing with Bradford-McCoy.

Easy Money With The Flip Rule in College Football

Thursday, 2 August, 2018

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Abnormal spreads are essentially non-existent in the world of hockey, baseball, NBA, and the NFL.

College sports is entirely different and has a scatter plot of weekly out of this world point spreads. Money involved in college athletics has helped continuously boost all phases of training athletes and getting high-impact recruits.

Three years of mandatory collegiate athletics before jumping to the NFL creates a dominating factory of excellence for certain schools.

From an ATS stand point one is going to see point spreads in the range of twenty to even forty points on a consistent basis.

Once non-conference play concludes this number will of course dwindle back down to some normalcy in-conference. Still the top five to ten teams in the country and some non-power five undefeated teams are going to remain high double-digit favorites.

For bettors it can be hard to refrain from attraction to these games when rounding out a collegiate betting board.

The enticement of high amount of Saturday games lures bettors in. It’s common and perfectly normal within reasonable amount of games.

A best practice for myself personally is the recognition of when drawn to a double-digit spread in both college basketball and football. It happens and use to be a profit-boost killer.

Almost every time if I liked the underdog the favorite would rout the spread, and if I liked the favorite the game would be played out as if it were a single-digit spread.

I’ve scaled back even reviewing such spreads but when I do I’ll nine times out of ten flip that selection. Reflect back on your college double-digit takes over the years and you would likely be in the same boat.

Ranking A Play Versus the Board Creates Daily Memory

Wednesday, 1 August, 2018

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To become a sharper bettor there are an infinite amount of variables to climb upward. Two that are unquestionable are the need to have a sharp memory and to be able to watch a game without tunnel vision.

If your eyes are fixated on the screen that has your betting interest only it’s going to be the same way you break down a betting board. Stuck on particular games and a self-drawn lure to go back to a game that has no betting value at all.

When reviewing the next day or week’s betting board you will have a singular view. Each game will be looked at as the number and the game, which simplified is how it’s supposed to be done.

But there’s a way to break down a betting board that will in turn change your mindset while watching games.

That is to rank a game versus the daily board. This can take awhile but while you’re ranking a play versus the rest of the board it creates memory. You are going to remember lines from prior weeks and in turn game action much stronger.

In turn that singular view mindset of one game at your local sports bar or sportsbook becomes a fixation on all games.

Involve the entire board in your daily betting process and you’ll see the difference in the way you view games. In time one will also enhance their betting percentages.