1 Week Wonders

Post Week Six One Week Wonders

Thursday, 18 October, 2018

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In the fantasy football world more times than not potential waiver wire adds are one week wonders. Zack examines some of the popular names that likely hit their ceiling.

Brock Osweiler
We’ve seen this Brock Osweiler in the past and know it’s not leading to anything special. Osweiler dodged an early third quarter turnover to have a phenomenal fourth quarter. Yet one can’t ignore the stagnant Dolphins offense of the first three quarters. That and Ryan Tannehill’s long term status should be safe from an injury return.

Frank Gore

The Dolphins running back feasted on the Chicago Bears defense. Gore’s strong runs kept the Dolphins in the game. Gore eclipsing over 100 yards is definitely reason to scour to the wire. Yet expect more of a toned down norm involving the veteran. A realistic standard should be between forty and sixty yards a game with an occasional touchdown.

Corey Clement

Clement got the treasured touchdown in the Eagles convincing win over the Giants. Yet it appears that Wendell Smallwood has the upper hand in terms of carries. Philadelphia is also a high throw red-zone team that likes to feature their tall receivers and top tier tight end in Zach Ertz.

Ito Smith

A guy that has stood on waivers through a long-term injury suddenly has become the man to scoop. Everyone knew Smith’s role during DeVanta Freeman’s four-week absence yet stayed away from Smith. Now with Freeman on injured reserve everyone wants a piece of Smith. Truth be told Smith has been fortunate to get the touchdowns he has. His volume is too low to have dependable reliance on a fantasy football team.

Cole Beasley

Beasley’s breakout game gave every fantasy owner flashbacks to last year and prior seasons. With the Cowboys not having a true number one wide receiver no one has been able to step up. That’s where I see Beasley’s recent breakout as a true one-week wonder specialist. Dallas’s offense has been too mundane to trust it through the air.

Chris Godwin
Certain quarterbacks feature their wide receivers differently. Comparing Jameis Winston to Ryan Fitzpatrick the odd man out is Chris Godwin. This is noticeable as the Bucs had thirty receptions in a shoot out against the Falcons. Godwin did get into the end zone and had the team high of catches in six. Yet the yards are where one should be alarmed. He finished fifth of all Buccaneers. Touchdowns will come down with Jameis, which makes Godwin expendable.

Tyrell Williams
Williams was the road difference a team needs to get off to a great start. He hauled in two early touchdowns on deep balls against the Browns. One in fact could of went to the corner but Williams mitted the ball with his big hands. While the Chargers will continue to call home run balls don’t expect Williams to top his two touchdown performance of week six.

Fantasy Football Week Five Wonders

Tuesday, 9 October, 2018

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Before diving into the waiver wire Zack examines some week five wonders that likely will have peaked for the season.

Eric Ebron

Eric Ebron has been a top five-fantasy tight end statistically through five weeks. Andrew Luck has always featured his tight end and that likely won’t change. But expect teams to adjust on Ebron or for the Colts not to find themselves playing from behind as they have against the Texans and Patriots.

Robby Anderson

A season ago Robby Anderson went from a one-week wonder to a sensational weekly fantasy contributor. With his week five performance folks may now expect a return to last year’s consistency. Don’t count on it. Thus far Sam Darnold has not shown to be the same deep ball thrower as McCown was a season ago. Furthermore, the Jets are a ground heavy team.

Mohammed Sanu

In consecutive weeks Mohammed Sanu has filled the second half stat sheet well. Against the Bengals he had a big second half touchdown and this past weekend against the Steelers he reaped the benefits of the Falcons being down to the Steelers. Teams have taken away Calvin Ridley a bit and focused more on Julio Jones. While Sanu has fantasy team value, he needs to be a primary bench option.

Sammy Watkins

Still only 25 years old Watkins has always been on the radar of fantasy owners. Yet there comes a time where fantasy football owners move on. We’ve done so in considering Watkins a fantasy starter while keeping on eye on his situation in Kansas City. With the Chiefs airing it out weekly with Patrick Mahomes it comes as no surprise to see Watkins reaping some of the stats. Yet be cautious as Mahomes comes down to Earth and Watkins begins his yearly inconsistency stretch. I would count on his week five targets of fifteen to be a season high.

Mike Davis

For two straight weeks Davis has been a fantasy stud in the ever-hard position of running back. Seattle’s ball control style has meant plenty of carries for Davis. Being a big back how long can he hold up? Pete Carroll has also never been one to commit to any running back long term. Expect Davis’s two week run to simmer especially when rookie Penny gets back into the fold.

CJ Beathard
For a second consecutive week quarterback CJ Beathard has been a top fantasy quarterback. With the 49ers issues at running back it’s safe to see that continue. Yet turnovers are a mark that fantasy owners can’t overlook at the quarterback position. Beathard. not only threw two interceptions but also had two fumbles against the Arizona Cardinals. Refrain from thinking Beathard can be your fantasy backup quarterback.

FANTASY FOOTBALL: FIVE PLAYERS TO UPGRADE AND DOWNGRADE

Wednesday, 17 September, 2014

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Each Wednesday, Notjustagame.com will take a look at key fantasy football contributors to upgrade and downgrade based on the past week. When placing these labels of course these upgrades or downgrades can be viewed as short term and long term.

Upgrades

Andre Ellington
I’ll be the first to admit I was wrong on Ellington. Arizona has had key defensive injuries, suspensions, and was without Carson Palmer in week two. Ellington shook off a foot injury that was first reported to keep him out to suddenly becoming a dominant force in his second season. Teams haven’t figured him out yet, and the Cardinals are off to a 2-0 start.

Antonio Gates
Even if Gates season drastically declines he has already put up borderline tier one/tier two tight end stats. His week two performance against Seattle was one for the ages. He’ll look back at it as one of his many career moments. This from a tight end some fantasy analysts had ranked in the high teens to start the season.

Bobby Rainey
It doesn’t look like Doug Martin’s health will ever be to the level of a number one tailback. Whether that’s on the field health or playing with the injuries he has endured in his young career. Rainey on the other hand showed last year he can fill in admirably and did so in last week’s start.

Others: Mohamed Sanu and Eric Decker

Downgrades

Shane Vereen
Vereen can be a PPR monster but New England has made it clear that Ridley is their main tail back. Unless Ridley’s fumble woes resurface you have to take the Patriots back field for what it is. With Gronkowski back in the fold, Vereen’s pass catching value is diminished.

Hakeem Nicks
Nicks just doesn’t seem to have close to the skillset he had just four years ago as a Giant. He can still be a red zone threat, but between the 20’s he isn’t even a top 75 fantasy wideout. It’s time to move on from Nicks unless you’re in extreme deep fantasy leagues.

Jake Locker
It’s a shame that Locker can’t nail down the number one intangible of being an NFL quarterback, accuracy. It’s plagued his NFL career and eventually will lead to his starting role being taken away. Locker missed wide open receivers Sunday at home against the Cowboys. For the strong skills he has such as athleticism, passion, and leadership, he just does not have the accuracy to be in the NFL.

Others: Ben Tate and Anquan Boldin

WILL THE SLIPPERY SLOPE CONTINUE FOR FOSTER?

Thursday, 7 August, 2014

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Arian Foster’s decline a year ago has been seen time and time again from the position of running back. Outstanding seasons suddenly get abruptly halted from injuries. Foster had shaken off a few injury bugs in prior seasons to still perform. In 2013 though they piled up to the brink that he told Hannah Storm in a recent interview he pondered retirement.

The tread on Foster’s legs and body is definitely not the same from most 27 year old backs. In college Foster was a four-year guy and carried the ball enough to break all-time records at Tennessee. Though undrafted, Foster ended up in a prime position in Houston with the likes of Steve Slaton.

Not too often will you find a second year back not drafted as the feature back. He relished the role and received a mega contract most backs don’t get until his current age now.

Foster’s track record sort of gives the vibe that he is a 30 year old back. Fantasy owners are likely leery of the Texan back, but I’d give him strong upside as a top tier fantasy back. Even though the Texans do not have a stud quarterback, the offense will still move fluid enough to garner Foster a higher ranking than he currently is averaging (10th).

For those not registering the possibility of Foster being a top five back again, consider this. Jamaal Charles fell back pretty hard in rankings when he suffered a serious knee injury and missed an entire season. He came back at full strength and now is considered the top fantasy back with his duel abilities.

His climb back to the top has left an absent minded void to perennial fantasy football owners. The age of Charles and Foster are the same, 27.

If Charles can return from a far and away more serious of an injury, than why is Foster receiving such a steep downgrade? Sure he doesn’t offer the same bang for the dollar that he once did out of the backfield, but he is still a great rusher and double digit type of touchdown producer.

Houston felt comfortable enough to part ways with Ben Tate and allot room for a downgrade in the second running back position in Andre Brown. I look for Foster to quiet his skeptics and work his way back into solidifying himself as a top five fantasy running back. Consider him a steal if you get him in the early to mid second round.

WHAT VALUE DO SAINTS RB’S HAVE?

Monday, 23 June, 2014

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Perhaps no team in football has been as tortuous as the New Orleans Saints to figure out their stable of running backs. Pierre Thomas has had the highest prime value for the Saints. He went from a high carry back to an inordinate amount of carries. Last year his fantasy worthiness almost came exclusively out of the backfield.

The Saints have used a platoon of running backs intermittently that drives fantasy owners nuts. With Darren Sproles departed to the Eagles, it leaves the same backfield of players. Is the Saints backfield being overlooked from a fantasy standpoint because of this? Likely so.

It seems odd to think about, but Darren Sproles has been a main key to Brees career. Out in San Diego, Sproles played the lightning bolt to LT. When he became a free agent the Saints went after Sproles to replace Reggie Bush’s role. He filled it admirably.

Now who will Brees have to be his Reggie Bush or Darren Sproles?

Both guys were fantasy havens for PPR leagues and combined yards of rushing and receiving. It was a toss up between Sproles and Pierre Thomas for more effective fantasy running back. Neither lit the fantasy scoreboard on a weekly basis, but did just enough to be fantasy running back three or four.

Who is going to catch the out of the backfield receptions for the Saints? Sproles had over 70 catches for the Saints each of the last three seasons.

Based on the Saints current roster, you’d have to believe the Saints are planning on reducing Pierre Thomas’s carries some more. They dwindled quite a bit last year as he boosted his performance out of the backfield. Last year he caught 77 passes for over 500 yards. Before that career season he had over 40 catches just once in his eight year career. His yards per carry dipped to a career low of just 3.7 yards last season. This should be clear evidence that the Saints want to use Thomas as their Sproles/Bush 100 percent.

That leaves the big void of whom will be the Saints main tail back for rushing the football. Mark Ingram has been nothing short of a disappointment in his stint as a Saint. The former Heisman Trophy winner has struggled with injuries and consistency. One bright sign from Ingram was his finish to the 2013 season. He had two games in which he came close to 100 yards, including in a playoff victory over the Eagles. In the divisional round he did have a costly fumble against the Seahawks though.

The Saints other two running backs are Khiry Robinson and Travaris Cadet. Robinson had spots a year ago where he looked like he would overtake the main running back duties. It just never materialized and left fantasy owners regretful on taking a flyer on him.

Maybe that was a move warranted for this upcoming season. Robinson will likely have a fair amount of carries with Ingram. For now it’d be hard to rank one higher than the other. You’d expect the Saints to give Ingram every chance to gain the upper hand on the time split, but Ingram’s proven to drop the ball when given opportunities.

I’d still downgrade Ingram and have an asterisk on Cadet stealing some thunder from both. New Orleans has too many receptions and carries available to have fantasy eyes drifting. If you’re anti-Ingram take your shot in later rounds on Cadet or Robinson.

Best Ratios of Catches to Targets Week Eight

Tuesday, 29 October, 2013

Best Ratios of Catches to Targets Week Eight

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Ted Ginn Jr
Ginn Jr has had sprinkled results of success during the Panthers recent rise over the last four games. He adds the dimension of speed that is the perfect neutralizer to keep defenses on their heels against a Panthers effective run game. Ginn caught five of six targets week eight.

Calvin Johnson
Johnson ripped apart the Cowboys fans’ hearts with a day for the ages. His stats alone were out of the ordinary. What made his day even more remarkable is that Dallas could not halt Johnson’s catches to targets a tad. He had fourteen catches on sixteen targets.

Dexter McCluster
Five to ten years ago safety valve targets for a quarterback came via tight ends and preferred slot receivers. Nowadays teams have primary check down backs to get in the open field. McCluster has made a niche on the Chiefs roster as an open field threat to go long distances. Sunday he caught seven of ten targets.

Stevie Johnson
The best attribute to Johnson this season has been his maturity. He was starting to live up to the new age diva NFL receivers that were accustomed to showboating. He has toned that down and also kept quiet to the media. Sunday he finished with seven catches on eleven targets.

DeSean Jackson
Throughout the quarterback carousel in Philadelphia, DeSean Jackson has remained a fantasy football haven at wide receiver. Each week he is providing a different element. In years past you just couldn’t depend on Jackson from a consistency standpoint. This past week he bypassed double digits in fantasy points by catching eight of eleven passes.

Cecil Shorts III
Even though the Jaguars haven’t done enough to get a win this year, they’ve been a different ball club offensively with Chad Henne at quarterback over Blaine Gabbert. Part of that had to do with Justin Blackmon’s return from suspension, but mostly it’s the attributes Henne has over Gabbert. Shorts caught seven of ten targets Sunday.

David Nelson
Geno Smith’s weeks at quarterback are as unpredictable as your drunk buddy playing darts. Each game (round) may be different because with sporadic play. Smith clearly does not even have a number one target to throw to which is hurting his development. Any game the Jets are down double figures the Jets chances for a comeback are gone out the window. Nelson was the latest receiver to join Smith’s target list catching eight of twelve throws Sunday.

Others: Reggie Bush 8 catches/9 targets, Jordan Cameron 4 catches/4 targets, Scott Chandler 7 catches/11 targets, Victor Cruz 7 catches/10 targets, Emmanuel Sanders 7 catches/11 targets, Antonio Brown 9 catches/13 targets, Jordan Reed 8 catches/14 targets, Demaryius Thomas 7 catches/11 targets, Wes Welker 6 catches/10 targets, Harry Douglas 12 catches/18 targets, Jarrett Boykin 5 catches/6 targets,

Poor Results: Vincent Jackson 5 catches/13 targets, Terrance Williams 3 catches/10 targets, Mike Wallace 3 catches/10 targets, Justin Blackmon 4 catches/10 targets, AJ Green 3 catches/7 targets