Football

The Gold Rush for Sports Betting Will Never Change

Friday, 17 August, 2018

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The dollar chase from big companies has begun to enter the world of sports betting. Different routes of coverage and content are ongoing. Competition will be sizeable but how long will it take before the fizzle and bubble burst to occur?

Not long. Similar to a hot stock market stretch the green can fade quickly. Year over year growth from any company needs to occur with profits based on the business model. In the world of sports betting the only way to do this is to provide content that gives people what they want. Winners.

No magic wand to give out winners exists. Legal sportsbooks in Las Vegas, Reno, and other cities have shown profits month to month and year over year for countless decades.

The foundational reason why has to do with the bettor and the rule of the pitter-patter.

Check any site with true handicapper records and you’ll see more than half that float at exactly the same amount of wins and losses. It’s happened to me and can happen without breaking away from your normal betting routine.

Rationale on why this occurs is simple. When a bettor wins his next bet is suddenly shifted to a current value mindset. A loss and a bettor now shifts his betting mindset to a future value.

It will never change and is why the industry will remain streak based and pitter-patter based.

Defining Line Movement As Non-Value and Value

Friday, 17 August, 2018

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During the football season when I’m dialed in customers often times can’t resist asking extra opinions on games. My response is the same 99 percent of the time.

It’s not on the finalized board therefore I have no opinion.

That’s the final stage of a long week of board finalization with many steps along the way.

Custom weekly best practices I’ve delved into an inordinate amount of times the past month. One area that can be expanded on is recognition of line movement.

Tracking line movement throughout your own assessment is vital in reaching profitable goals.

In the NFL once I begin an ATS assessment the number I start with has to be the posting number once I finalize. For instance on a Monday as ATS evaluation begins the number may be -7. If I finalize on a Friday and it has jumped to eight it can no longer be apart of my board.

Of course if there are scenarios where one can purchase a half point I’ll keep it available.

One may say why would you let a full point line movement in your favor change your course in the NFL. It’s a year over year best practice that ultimately pays dividends on dwindling your NFL betting board appropriately.

College football is the exact opposite. For multiple years I was using the same theory in both the NFL and NCAAF of tossing a game, which had severe line movement.

It may be the same game on the field but ATS results and action are completely different. College football is typically a softer line with much more wiggle room ATS, while the NFL’s number is precise week in and week out.

Turning off a line movement from Monday to Friday in college football is a money burner. It’s a softer market as numbers posted aren’t as sharp. That leaves room for strong line movement, which should not turn a bettor off.

More times than not leaving that game off your board and finding another bet results in a loss.

Jump in on college football line moves and don’t even think about it in the NFL.

Importance of Time Slots in Betting

Thursday, 16 August, 2018

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Time slots of sporting events are routine-based by conferences. The Pac-12 for instance typically has one mid-day game scheduled Saturday and an early evening game. All the rest of the Pac-12 conference games are filled in the typical 7PM Pacific Time slot.

I despise early games particularly because the conferences that open Saturday’s are not my main focus. Conferences such as the Big 12, Big 10, and non-prominent ACC schools are not attractive to me.

Knowing your main conferences to attack is a significant recipe for success ATS. If one is bouncing around conferences on a week-to-week basis you’re going to drown. Instead place your betting dollars on familiarity of teams you know that go hand in hand with scheduled games.

Attention to time slots of your key betting games is also helpful in burdening your bets appropriately. I for one never want to have action on more than two games that have the same start times. One can have a hard enough time tracking entire action versus their bets with one game. Adding multiple games at the same time just makes that even more difficult.

A sports betting Saturday can be ruined in a hurry if three or more games bet around the same start time turn for the worse. 0-3 or higher is like a boxer being KO’d in round one. Give yourself proper chances to recover when that bell hits for a later time slot.

Parlay opportunities also can take a huge hit if one splits a pair of games at the same start time. More often than not a later game wins for a bettor and your left without a hedge opportunity.

Leave the door open for a hedge opportunity that can be done via pre-game, half-time or even in-game wagering to close out a profitable parlay.

The Potency of Sports Opinions Labeled as Betting

Wednesday, 8 August, 2018

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Media takes on the world of sports betting have been frenetic. It’s at an all time high and likely to continue through the new waves of sports betting legalization.

Suddenly opinions are floating more than daily and fantasy sports takes. The race to chase the millions of sports bettors is the hottest market tied to sports.

NBA commissioner Adam Silver saw this years ago and soon every major league will be in the same territory.

It’s a market where the new age has yet to be determined. Old sales tactics from sports marketers fanned out in the mid 2000s. Sports handicappers migrated to a proper scope of an internet audience that can see true wins and losses.

Now there is an out of hand part of the current sports handicapper market that involves fake marketers and fake results to lure in buyers. But that type of scamming exists with any information type business. Most consumers are smart enough to dodge a profile of fake followers or a bogus name.

True handicappers are bettors first and foremost. They’re betting the games they give out and earning their dollars two-ways.

With what I’m seeing now media personalities are beginning to float opinions in the betting market as if it’s an NFL Sunday preview show. Head to head takes for bettors that are likely to put their dollars on a free opinion.

It’s a dangerous potent combination. Bettors want the lure of anything free or cheap. But these opinions are coming from non-sports bettors.

If you’re not putting a dollar down one does not have a proper opinion. There is simply no one to gauge a market if you are not in it.

With NFL being the toughest sport to handicap it should be an interesting six months as people lose money from the media chase of sports betting.

Where I see it headed is sort of the same direction ESPN’s ticker has went with a computer take of percentages on a team’s chances to cover ATS.

Sports Betting: Mind Trap Games Reading a Line

Monday, 6 August, 2018

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Finalizing a daily or weekly betting board is an art in itself. Bettors have their own style to a degree but one that never strays is a review of a line itself.

In prior ‘School of Handicapping’ videos I discussed different elements that can lead bettors to a poor or rewarding outcome.

Rounding out a board on certain weeks can be extra difficult. In the NFL season it can be a root cause as simple as extra teams on bye weeks, and in college football there can be difficult marquee matchups to read.

Within a routine bettors become accustomed to betting a certain amount of games. One may be a game away from their normal board that they seemingly can’t pinpoint what final game to take.

Some bettors may go into the betting day and wait to get a feel for the games before adding a play. This way of betting nine times out of ten will lead to a losing bet. One simply can’t get a feel for ATS value while watching current games with bets in progress; it’s just not possible.

Another avenue bettors fall for to finalize that final game is reviewing a games spread simply because of the number. All of us have fallen victim to it.

A steep underdog or a prime favorite gives the appeal bookmakers want. The draw of thinking why is a number what it is.

You’re suddenly just as bad as a bettor scooping up an odds sheet at a sportsbook. Drawn to the number instead of the matchup.

A prime example of this in college football last year was the Miami Hurricanes final regular season game against Clemson. The number did not stop rising prior to kickoff, which had some people thinking the value was on a 10-1 Hurricane team. Instead they were blown out 38-3.

A recent example in baseball would be the Arizona Diamondbacks with Zach Greinke on the mound as a steep favorite over the Giants and Madison Bumgarner. The line continued to go up on Greinke’s side with the end result being the Giants in a landslide road win.

In it’s own way these types of games should be referred to as mind trap forced bets.

Once you place the wager you’ll be thinking why did I bet a game that was not on my initial finalized board.

You don’t have to force a play to get to your weekly routine goal. Take each week in stride and you will have more plus weeks than negative.

Cardinals Veteran QB Routine an ATS Gem

Monday, 6 August, 2018

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Post the Jake Plummer era the Arizona Cardinals revamped their ways to a veteran mentality in key positions. Without a doubt they have been a fixture in the league for veteran running backs and quarterbacks over the last decade.

Backs have included Emmitt Smith, Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Rashard Mendenhall, and even Edgerrin James.

At quarterback it’s been much more simplistic. Aside from a stretch of utilizing Kevin Kolb and John Skelton it’s been three guys in Kurt Warner, Derek Anderson, and Carson Palmer.

All three were high ATS producers. Warner’s best stretch came post 2006 when he put the drafting of Matt Leinart to bed. Anderson’s stretch was much shorter (first five games) as he lasted just a year as starter with the Cardinals.

Aside from last season Carson Palmer’s prior four years with the Cardinals ATS numbers were top five. They were defeating the number so well that by 2016 value was seemingly against them every week.

A commonality to all of these eras was the proper offensive coordinator. Todd Haley led the Cardinals and Kurt Warner. Head Coach and play-caller Bruce Arians drove success with Carson Palmer.

Now a new veteran era begins with the same elements in-line as Warner and Palmer.

Both had injury issues with Palmer missing several stretches as a Bengal and Raider. Warner had a nagging hand injury that ended his tenure with the Rams and nearly cost him his backup spot with the New York Giants.

Can the Cardinals do it again with Sam Bradford? Numerous injuries have also plagued his career and this will be his fourth team overall.

Just as in prior veteran quarterback signings the Cardinals announced a new offensive coordinator in Mike McCoy.

McCoy’s runs with the Broncos and Chargers should fit Bradford’s abilities well.

Cardinals GM Steve Keim may have another hidden ATS pairing with Bradford-McCoy.