Posts tagged with “nba finals mvp”

Projecting the NBA Finals Market: Cavaliers vs Warriors

Thursday, 28 May, 2015


The latest element of a possible injury altering the Finals occurred for the Warriors last night. Klay Thompson took a knee to the head and appeared to be cleared by the Warriors medical staff. After the series clinching win, Thompson began to suffer concussion-like symptoms. Concussions are a tricky facet of any sport for diagnosis and clearance.

With a week off before the NBA Finals begin on June 4th, the last stage for future wagers is set. There were stages in the playoffs the Cavaliers were in the plus-200 range, which was a higher price than most stages of the regular season.

For the Warriors the only price drop that occurred for them was when they were down 2 games to 1 to the Memphis Grizzlies. Surprisingly you could have grabbed the Warriors around +170-+190 for an NBA title and as high as +120 to win the West. After game four against the Grizzlies their odds shifted back to normal range.

Both the Cavaliers and Warriors enter the Finals a bit banged up. That’s expected in any sport at this stage of the season. Where both of these teams have clear advantages is with their depth. The Warriors can go up to ten players deep. Cleveland may not have the same offensive fire power that deep but can match opposing teams with their defense.

Golden State has shown to be prone to have mental lapses in the playoffs. It occurred on multiple occasions against the Pelicans and Grizzlies. In fact, if the Grizzlies did not have to play with a banged up Mike Conley and injured Tony Allen who knows if that series would have went seven games.

The Rockets were a favorable matchup for the Warriors as they play with tempo and high-scoring offense similar to the Warriors. The Warriors were more efficient all season and that showed against the Rockets.

In the NBA Finals will the Warriors be able to avoid the same mental lapses they’ve shown throughout the playoffs? The Cavaliers will be utilizing this rest to their advantage and have won seven straight playoff games.

From a handicapping perspective, this will actually be a series that I decide to straight wager on a game to game basis. I’ll be looking at probably three plays in the series. At this point I do not see any reason to place a series wager. Odds shift enough in that area that you’ll probably be able to land the same or better value after games 3-5.

Pick your spots well. This time off can be a detriment in the handicapping world. Bettors have become accustomed to watching the NBA on a nightly basis and may get antsy for that first game on the 4th. Be patient, and stick to the same discipline that leads to handicapping success. It should be a fantastic series and worth the wait.


Wednesday, 4 June, 2014


Yesterday I discussed waiting on picking the Heat or Spurs. The Spurs are currently slight favorites thanks to home court advantage. But a shift of odds for the better or worse is likely to occur during the series.

Where the advantage lies currently is deciding on an MVP candidate. The odds on favorites are Lebron James at nearly +150 and Tim Duncan at a little more than 2 to 1.

Before Tony Parker’s injury I likely would have favored him to win. Currently he is still at a little more than 3 to 1.

Money surely is going to flow on those three. Lebron has carried the Heat all season and Tim Duncan has been the Spurs leader forever. Yet my money is going to go on Dwayne Wade at a whopping 10-1.

All year Wade has taking a back seat and been preserved for the NBA Finals. Basically the Heat have been able to coast the regular season and Eastern Conference playoffs by default. Facing the San Antonio Spurs though things will be dramatically different.

Coach Poppovich will attack the Heat’s strengths. Obviously their number one strength is LeBron James. For the Heat to have a chance in this series it will take an old school Dwayne Wade to do so.

I believe the Heat realize that and so does James. Throughout James career he has never been the type of player to hog the spotlight. He’ll gladly had the reigns to Dwayne Wade if it means winning a third championship.

All he cares about our rings, unlike most superstars that have played any professional sport.

For Wade to be at 10-1 is a slap in the face to the type of player he has been. Wade also knows that LeBron James has the option to opt out after this post season. To keep LeBron from even having that thought, I believe Wade will turn his game up to the top level he has done occasionally this season.

Veterans of Wade’s caliber know when to turn the jets on. Sure Wade is 32 but people have acted like he is an after thought to the Heat’s success. I can’t remember a player of his caliber being wrote off so quickly as Dwayne Wade.

The cast of Lebron on the team has jaded people’s perceptions of Wade. The Spurs have the LeBron caliber defenders to limit James’s success. Leonard and Boris Diaw have shown they can do that. But who is their answer for Wade?

The answer is they do not have one. Last year in the NBA Finals the Heat fell down two games to one to the Spurs. In those three games Wade’s averages were just 14 points a game with 1 rebound and three assists.

The series turned and the Heat then won three out of four games. In those four games Wade’s averages jumped tremendously. He averaged a near 24 points, 6 assists, 6 rebounds, and 2 blocks.

James already has two NBA finals MVP’s to go along with his two NBA titles as a Miami Heat member. This Heat team is different than in year’s past and is going to require a leap in Wade’s play to get the job done.