It’s just about mid-August, which means the future market for the pennant is rounding into form. With an additional wild card spot it has made the odds market more interesting then ever. With teams bunched up all over the place it can be hard not to have tunnel vision when looking at the future market.
It’ll be interesting to see which teams secure a playoff spot and distance themselves from the pack over the next month.
There are currently ten teams above the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL pennant odds. They’re 40-1 to accomplish an AL title and 100-1 to win the world series.
It’s hard to look beyond the cream of the crop of which teams are hot right now. The Orioles, Yankees, Blue Jays, Astros, etc. have the players and manager that draw money attention.
I’m typically not one to follow the money at limited odds, especially this early in the pennant race. Value of the Rays is far too high on where it should be in my opinion.
Their hitting and lineup may not have heralded players but they get the job done. They’ve knocked around some of the best pitchers in MLB this year including Chris Sale and Corey Kluber recently.
With Odorizzi back off the DL it just strengthens a backing of such odds at this time.
It’ll be a hard feat to make the playoffs with all the talented teams vying for a playoff spot. But why can’t they get it done?
Currently the Rays are four games back for the second wild card position. If they were able to secure the spot, I sure don’t want to have that regretful feeling of missing out on 40-1 or 100-1 odds with Chris Archer deciding the wild card game.
Long-shot approved: Tampa Bay Rays—August 10th, 2015
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The MLB trade deadline will be set this time tomorrow. There have been plenty of big splashes that will spark teams. We’ve seen the Astros roll off some wins after they acquired Scott Kazmir. Of course if adding a new piece to the puzzle were that simple, people would be pouring their money into the sports markets on a daily basis.
Oddsmakers aren’t foolish either. Tuesday featured an inordinate amount of heavy favorites that made it quite an interesting day to find true value.
If you’re in Vegas or at the proper offshore book, you’ve probably dabbled into series odds from time to time. They can be of great value to land 2 of 3 games instead of worrying on a day to day game basis.
On this blog I want to shift the focus onto teams to be leery of this weekend. Teams with momentum value that carries spreads higher as wins keep happening.
New York Yankees
Not only have the Yankees caught fire at the plate throughout their lineup, but reports are they decided against trading for David Price. They feel they can land him in the offseason without burdening their prospects. That could be true or false but what isn’t false is that perception has been spun by the media. I’d be extra cautious this weekend in taking the bite on the Yankees at likely high prices.
Bettors are of pattern behavior. People love familiarity and trends. Last year the Nationals ripped off a nice double digit win-streak in August that catapulted them to the division title. They’re starting to win games again and have a crucial weekend series against the Mets. On top of that the Mets are coming off a couple of shaky home losses against the San Diego Padres.
The Astros won a come from behind win against the Angels and then beat them again on ESPN Tuesday night. Their bats were the catalysts in both of those wins. Pitching has waned a bit and you have to wonder if their staff has a bit of pressure on them with Kazmir acquired. This Fri, Sat, Sunday series against the Diamondbacks is a tricky one. Arizona has won six of seven and has strong momentum at the plate and on the mound. This will likely be a series that I watch from afar with no plays from all three games from a handicapper stand point.
The line between fantasy and reality is being blurred by the rapidly-growing Daily Fantasy Sports market, offering fans a chance to not only build the team of their dreams and test their football knowledge but earn big money by playing fantasy sports against other passionate pigskin aficionados. In fact, fantasy footballers are more like sports handicappers than ever before.
Fantasy sports are nothing new to the mainstream, stemming from those hallowed Rotisserie League days in the 1980s and booming in popularity at the turn of the century. Much like sports betting, fantasy football gets fans to not just tune into their favorite NFL teams each Sunday but also watch games involving different players on their fantasy rosters.
And, again like sports betting, managing your fantasy team – daily or season-long – takes a keen eye to spot value in certain matchups that may not be visible to the average fan. Fantasy football is one of the most underrated places to find sports betting tips, and vice versa.
For example, sports handicappers may look to play the Under in a contest in which a team’s passing game is facing a stingy secondary that ranks among the top pass defenses in the NFL, knowing that the offense won’t be able to pick up big gains and will likely have to run the ball more than usual – keeping the gains short and the clock ticking.
The fantasy football player sees this matchup in a similar light, spotting added value in the offense’s running back, knowing the team won’t be passing as much and giving the rusher extra carries to try and move the chains while taking pressure off the receivers and forcing the defense to loosen up on the pass coverage.
One of the biggest trends in fantasy football in recent years is the shift away from the rushing game, with most teams using a multi-back run attack, and the boom in passing. Since defenses are all but handcuffed when defending receivers, more importance is being put on quarterbacks and wideouts – but also running backs who can make plays after the catch. Finding a hybrid running back, that can run the ball and also make catches, is a smart way to win your weekly or daily fantasy football matchup.
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It’s Friday which means most of the work world’s focus will be shifting to a weekend mode here in just a few hours. With the weekend approaching typically the sportsbooks in Las Vegas will see a rise in game action. That begins today on Friday as there is a scattered board of games in MLB, hockey, and of course the NBA playoffs.
Money moves on favorites draw the most attention from bettors. If markets were that easy everyone would be 60% and above at handicapping and make this market as easy as the stock market the last four years. Of course that’s not the case. Value is the only way you’re going to truly make a profit in sports handicapping.
Today key line moves have seen odds shift in the Twins/Indians(Twins side), Rangers/Rays (Rangers side), Reds/White Sox (White Sox side)and Mets/Phillies (Mets side).
Today is a big board here at notjustagame.com. I have four plays available for purchase at . All plays were sent out last night at 19:00 PT. On the board are three MLB plays and one NBA playoff play. It’s never too late to get on board. Of course once game time hits than it’s on to the next possible day for a prospective client.
Enjoy your weekend and be sure to follow me on twitter@cimini or via Google Plus for daily interaction.
12/10 04:00 PM CB (525) KANSAS VS (526) GEORGETOWN edit
Take: (525) KANSAS
Reason: Play Kansas plus 3 Play Kansas plus 3 The line here clearly is a distinction of Georgetown as a home team. DC is always a tough place to play. But I do not believe Georgetown has the depth to hang in for a full 40 minutes against Kansas. Thus far the team has done a fantastic job at executing on the defensive end and keeping teams below the 65 point range. They’re doing so with key upper classmen playing out of position. D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera is playing the point guard position with Markel Starks gone due to graduation. Before this season Smith-Rivera averaged just above 2 assists, now it’s at three. At guard is Jabril Trawick who has always been undersized but is more of a defensive ace on the floor and hustle guy offensively. Another troubling sign is Georgetown’s bigs have been foul prone in key games this season. Against Wisconsin, Florida, and Butler both Mikhael Hopkins and Joshua Smith have had to play a reduced role because of fouls. Hopkins fouled out in two of those games and Smith had four fouls in two of the three. Kansas may be missing Jabari Traylor but they still have the athleticism to disrupt Georgetown’s offensive sets and get their bigs into foul trouble. Georgetown is still settling in on their bench rotation which could disrupt small leads they may get in this game. Expect Kansas to find a way to keep this a last shot wins or loses game and grab the cover or win.
Daily fantasy leagues are starting to become the new fascination. They offer what participants in money leagues want and that’s the opportunity to cash in one day. A few times a week I’ll give a take on high reward guys to put in your lineup on specific days. The goal will be to look for blue chip salary cap guys that can give you a chance to boost your lineups.
Today we will go off of Fanduel.com’s MLB game for Saturday. To win in these style of leagues typically requires grouping together multiple players from one team. Predicting a team that is going to score a lot of runs means success for several guys on one team. Here are a few teams that you can group together for your fanduel rosters.
Here are a few guys I believe will be high reward players for their salaries Saturday.
Marlins position players and Jarred Cosart
Miami has been in a bind as of late, dropping some costly road trip games against Colorado, the Angels, and the first game against Atlanta. Still they’re in position to recover if they can win these next few games against Atlanta. Cosart has been phenomenal for the fish and was the catalyst in their last win in Anaheim. I’d expect Miami’s bats to step up a bit against Aaron Harang. Last month Aaron Harang gave up seven hits, with two walks, and two runs against the Marlins. Desperate times call for desperate measures and I’d expect players like Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich, and Casey McGhee to be low value high reward guys today.
Pittsburgh seems to reappear and disappear in Criss Angel fashion up and down the standings. Right now they’re on the up swing as they’re putting the final dagger to the Reds playoff chances. They’ve won six of their last eight games and look to continue that tonight against the Reds. Alfredo Simon for the Reds went seven innings in his last start against the Braves. He is typically a five inning type of pitcher. Before his last outing he had only pitched seven innings once out of eight starts. I like the way Pittsburgh is coming together as a team and expect them to rattle Simon out a bit early. We all know the documented woes with Cincinnati’s ever-struggling bullpen.
Others: Baltimore and Mets