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It’s Friday which means most of the work world’s focus will be shifting to a weekend mode here in just a few hours. With the weekend approaching typically the sportsbooks in Las Vegas will see a rise in game action. That begins today on Friday as there is a scattered board of games in MLB, hockey, and of course the NBA playoffs.
Money moves on favorites draw the most attention from bettors. If markets were that easy everyone would be 60% and above at handicapping and make this market as easy as the stock market the last four years. Of course that’s not the case. Value is the only way you’re going to truly make a profit in sports handicapping.
Today key line moves have seen odds shift in the Twins/Indians(Twins side), Rangers/Rays (Rangers side), Reds/White Sox (White Sox side)and Mets/Phillies (Mets side).
Today is a big board here at notjustagame.com. I have four plays available for purchase at . All plays were sent out last night at 19:00 PT. On the board are three MLB plays and one NBA playoff play. It’s never too late to get on board. Of course once game time hits than it’s on to the next possible day for a prospective client.
Enjoy your weekend and be sure to follow me on twitter@cimini or via Google Plus for daily interaction.
12/10 04:00 PM CB (525) KANSAS VS (526) GEORGETOWN edit
Take: (525) KANSAS
Reason: Play Kansas plus 3 Play Kansas plus 3 The line here clearly is a distinction of Georgetown as a home team. DC is always a tough place to play. But I do not believe Georgetown has the depth to hang in for a full 40 minutes against Kansas. Thus far the team has done a fantastic job at executing on the defensive end and keeping teams below the 65 point range. They’re doing so with key upper classmen playing out of position. D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera is playing the point guard position with Markel Starks gone due to graduation. Before this season Smith-Rivera averaged just above 2 assists, now it’s at three. At guard is Jabril Trawick who has always been undersized but is more of a defensive ace on the floor and hustle guy offensively. Another troubling sign is Georgetown’s bigs have been foul prone in key games this season. Against Wisconsin, Florida, and Butler both Mikhael Hopkins and Joshua Smith have had to play a reduced role because of fouls. Hopkins fouled out in two of those games and Smith had four fouls in two of the three. Kansas may be missing Jabari Traylor but they still have the athleticism to disrupt Georgetown’s offensive sets and get their bigs into foul trouble. Georgetown is still settling in on their bench rotation which could disrupt small leads they may get in this game. Expect Kansas to find a way to keep this a last shot wins or loses game and grab the cover or win.
Daily fantasy leagues are starting to become the new fascination. They offer what participants in money leagues want and that’s the opportunity to cash in one day. A few times a week I’ll give a take on high reward guys to put in your lineup on specific days. The goal will be to look for blue chip salary cap guys that can give you a chance to boost your lineups.
Today we will go off of Fanduel.com’s MLB game for Saturday. To win in these style of leagues typically requires grouping together multiple players from one team. Predicting a team that is going to score a lot of runs means success for several guys on one team. Here are a few teams that you can group together for your fanduel rosters.
Here are a few guys I believe will be high reward players for their salaries Saturday.
Marlins position players and Jarred Cosart
Miami has been in a bind as of late, dropping some costly road trip games against Colorado, the Angels, and the first game against Atlanta. Still they’re in position to recover if they can win these next few games against Atlanta. Cosart has been phenomenal for the fish and was the catalyst in their last win in Anaheim. I’d expect Miami’s bats to step up a bit against Aaron Harang. Last month Aaron Harang gave up seven hits, with two walks, and two runs against the Marlins. Desperate times call for desperate measures and I’d expect players like Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich, and Casey McGhee to be low value high reward guys today.
Pittsburgh seems to reappear and disappear in Criss Angel fashion up and down the standings. Right now they’re on the up swing as they’re putting the final dagger to the Reds playoff chances. They’ve won six of their last eight games and look to continue that tonight against the Reds. Alfredo Simon for the Reds went seven innings in his last start against the Braves. He is typically a five inning type of pitcher. Before his last outing he had only pitched seven innings once out of eight starts. I like the way Pittsburgh is coming together as a team and expect them to rattle Simon out a bit early. We all know the documented woes with Cincinnati’s ever-struggling bullpen.
Others: Baltimore and Mets
Today’s first five innings free play comes in the Reds versus Cubs. Yesterday saw a 3-0 underdog win from the Cubs over the Reds. Today’s starters are Matt Latos and Jacob Turner. Many are going to eye Turner’s name and automatically side with the Reds or the over. Against fifteen or twenty different MLB teams I would agree. But not against the Reds.
The lineup has hit a wall once again after seeming to come to life just a few weeks ago. They’re just not getting any hits or getting on base. Yesterday they saw solid looks from Travis Wood but could not get any hits. They had three on the day and were consistently hitting into fly ball outs.
I expect Matt Latos to have a strong comeback today after having a rough outing a week ago in Colorado. The Cubs bats take a major hit with Anthony Rizzo out today with a back injury suffered yesterday.
With Jacob Turner his stint in Miami was filled with inconsistency. He had two different stretches in which he was a part of the Marlins starting rotation. His woes in May were what cost him his rotation spot. But when he was called to duty in late July with Alvarez and Cosart missing starts he filled in admirably. Against Houston and Atlanta he got a win allowing just three runs in both starts.
The problem with Turner is he can’t be a rotation starter at this point in his career. Starting for his third and last time as a Marlin he had a rough game against the Reds. That is where we see the high price value today on Latos.
Off of relief outings as a Cub I expect Turner to be comfortable tonight in his normal four to five innings on the mound. That’s his maximum and is why I suggest taking the under tonight of 4 in the first five innings.
Good luck and take a look at today’s other premium plays under today’s picks.
Miami is coming off a disheartening series in Colorado. They lost in heart break fashion two nights ago after grabbing a top of the ninth go-ahead run. A blown save by Steve Cishek sent the game into extra innings where the Marlins eventually lost. That game could have put the Marlins two games ahead of .500 and gained on the wild card as the Giants and Braves also lost.
Instead it derailed them as they got off to a poor start yesterday against the Rockies and lost again. That’s how fast things can change.
This is a crucial interleague series for them. Cosart heads to the mound today for Miami and Wade LeBlanc the former Miami pitcher does so for the Angels.
Cosart has been impressive since coming to Miami, and has turned into the 1-2 punch behind Alvarez as Eovaldi continues to struggle. Even though Miami lost yesterday they had 7 extra base hits last night (season high) against the Rockies. Unfortunately for them a lot of those came with 2 outs and no runners on.
Strong money is on the Angels side tonight and maybe rightfully so. In July before being traded to Miami, Cosart had a sky high ERA. A new setting has calmed that but how long will it hold for?
The only other time the Marlins travel this far west is against the Dodgers. You’d have to wonder the mental affects of losing in Colorado and traveling further west to play the Angels tonight. I’m sure Mike Redmond will have a few non-regular bats in the lineup that may struggle the first few times at the plate.
Cosart is effective enough in the first five to like the under in this situation. I surely don’t want to trust the bullpens especially the Marlins who have used it quite a bit lately.
Grab the first five under tonight.
Today’s free total comes in the Arizona Diamondbacks and Washington Nationals matchup. Arizona has actually had a successful road trip in Cleveland and Miami pitching wise. Which is a surprise considering the struggles the staff had for the month of July and early August.
Don’t let their recent success fool you. They faced two teams in the Indians and Marlins that had been struggling mightily at the plate, especially the Indians. That series also featured a double header due to a rain out. Miami finally got going against Josh Collmenter yesterday and carried that over into pummeling the Diamondbacks bullpen.
The juice of -233 doesn’t please me enough to take the Nationals but I do like the over in the first five innings of this matchup. It’s just 3.5 because of Nuno’s latest strong performance and Zimmerman’s command all year.
Arizona has been getting on base plenty of times but failing to score runs. Against the Marlins they did score three first inning runs against Brad Hand and had several base runners on against Alvarez, and bases loaded against Tommy Koehlher yesterday.
They’re bound to get some runs plated across. Take the first five over.