Handicapping: MLB Series July 31st-August 2nd

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The MLB trade deadline will be set this time tomorrow. There have been plenty of big splashes that will spark teams. We’ve seen the Astros roll off some wins after they acquired Scott Kazmir. Of course if adding a new piece to the puzzle were that simple, people would be pouring their money into the sports markets on a daily basis.

Oddsmakers aren’t foolish either. Tuesday featured an inordinate amount of heavy favorites that made it quite an interesting day to find true value.

If you’re in Vegas or at the proper offshore book, you’ve probably dabbled into series odds from time to time. They can be of great value to land 2 of 3 games instead of worrying on a day to day game basis.

On this blog I want to shift the focus onto teams to be leery of this weekend. Teams with momentum value that carries spreads higher as wins keep happening.

New York Yankees
Not only have the Yankees caught fire at the plate throughout their lineup, but reports are they decided against trading for David Price. They feel they can land him in the offseason without burdening their prospects. That could be true or false but what isn’t false is that perception has been spun by the media. I’d be extra cautious this weekend in taking the bite on the Yankees at likely high prices.

Washington Nationals
Bettors are of pattern behavior. People love familiarity and trends. Last year the Nationals ripped off a nice double digit win-streak in August that catapulted them to the division title. They’re starting to win games again and have a crucial weekend series against the Mets. On top of that the Mets are coming off a couple of shaky home losses against the San Diego Padres.

Houston Astros
The Astros won a come from behind win against the Angels and then beat them again on ESPN Tuesday night. Their bats were the catalysts in both of those wins. Pitching has waned a bit and you have to wonder if their staff has a bit of pressure on them with Kazmir acquired. This Fri, Sat, Sunday series against the Diamondbacks is a tricky one. Arizona has won six of seven and has strong momentum at the plate and on the mound. This will likely be a series that I watch from afar with no plays from all three games from a handicapper stand point.


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