Posts tagged with “kellyinvegas”

CBB Futures: Rapid Drop in Syracuse–From 200-1 to 50-1

Tuesday, 5 May, 2015

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Value in the futures market is typically tight in the majority of sports. Barring an injury, you’re typically not going to get anything higher than 25-1 in major professional sports. The collegiate market is vastly different. There is more uncertainty with recruits and obviously there is a larger pool of teams. Shifting of odds are constant and at a considerable higher benchmark. The difficulty to make it through an NCAA tournament in March presents that variable of such expanded odds.

Those that have followed my collegiate advice over the years, have seen that I’ve picked four of the past five college basketball tournament winners. Louisville and Duke were teams that I picked before their respective seasons. I liked the returning players from Louisville’s team and the coaching factor with Rick Pitino. Duke’s scenario had more to do with their incoming recruits and also the extra edge with Coach K. UConn’s title runs, I made both picks during the season. I grabbed UConn at 40-1 during their conference slide in 2011 and I grabbed them during their tournament run at 35-1 before the sweet 16.

Heading into the 2015 season I do not have an odds on favorite at this moment. This is where I typically probe the market and grab a few value plays. The only one I’ve made so far was on the Orangemen at 200-1 a couple of weeks back. Odds that have dropped down to 50-1 just two weeks later.

Odds April 21st

Syracuse certainly will not be a top 20 team to start the season, but they have the make up of a team that will get better as the season goes on. Obviously there were market indicators that caused their price to leap to 200-1. One, their season is marked a bit by the forth coming Jim Boeheim conference suspension of nine games. That is in the appeal process and I believe it will end up being reduced. Nonetheless, their assistant coach in Mike Hopkins has been Boeheim’s aide for a long time. He has been a finalist the past several seasons for Division I positions and should be fine running Syracuse if Boeheim misses the entire nine games.

Another factor was the reduction of scholarships for Syracuse basketball. They will lose 2-3 a season for the duration of the imposed sanctions by the NCAA. As Jay Bilas noted, a school like Syracuse is not going to be effected by this. Duke just won the 2014-2015 NCAA title with only eight scholarship players. Losing BJ Johnson and Ron Patterson as transfers is not an alarming issue for depth next season. Johnson did show some promise but I did not envision him becoming capable of starters minutes. Patterson is just not an ACC player. Both made wise decisions to step down in competition to increase their presence for their collegiate careers. Similar to DaShonte Riley when he exited Syracuse for Eastern Michigan; decisions to leave Syracuse are not going to cause a seismic decline on the court for Syracuse.

Syracuse has a top five recruiting class coming in, but I won’t even delve into how they’ll help next year’s squad. Instead the focus will be on the returning group of players.

The fact that Syracuse lost Rakeem Christmas to graduation and that Chris McCullough declared for the NBA Draft was another reason odds were at 200-1 in April. Over the last eight years, Syracuse has only had three seasons where they counted on point production inside. Last year with Christmas, a few seasons back with Rick Jackson, and the combo efforts of Jackson/Onuako in 2010. Fab Melo had one semi-decent year but was more of a mirage for production.

Syracuse has always been a program that counts on offensive production from their guards and forwards. The key for their big men is the ability to defend the interior and grab rebounds in the 2-3 zone. The best decision Syracuse made last year was to not rush DaJuan Coleman back. His last game on the court came against Virginia Tech in December 2013. It’s still not known how much he will be able to provide but he is expected to return. Maybe it’ll be in a limited role but 15-20 minutes a game on defense will go a long ways. Coleman and Chinonso Obokoh should be more than capable of protecting the rim for Syracuse.

Scoring 60-65 points a game typically is going to put you in position to win games. College basketball’s pace and poor shot selection leaves plenty of teams unwatchable. Syracuse has four players that should easily put them in position every game to score in that range. Seniors in Trevor Cooney and Michael Gbinje had effective seasons in 2014. Their confidence should only grow with another offseason of preparation. Sophomore Kaleb Joseph went through his freshman slump but started to turn the corner late in conference play. Sophomore guards/point guards typically rise in level of play after their freshman seasons at Syracuse. Michael Carter-Williams, Johnny Flynn, Brandon Triche, Scoop Jardine, and even Cooney rose to higher levels their sophomore years. Joseph will be the x-factor on if Syracuse stays around the 25-35 range of top teams or ascends into the top 10-15.

I think we’ve seen the best that Syracuse will likely receive from Tyler Roberson. He is a tough guard inside for opposing defenders but will have to earn his points as the third to fourth option on the floor for Syracuse. Designed plays are going to run through Cooney/Joseph/Gbinje. Still, Roberson has the size and aggression to be an 8-10 points a game scorer.

200-1 was an obvious mistake from oddsmakers. When UConn received their one-year post season ban they came back and played with a chip on their shoulder. It took almost the entire season for UConn to find their way, but they did right before the tournament. It took a couple of beat down losses to Louisville in conference play for that to happen.

It’ll be a long season for Syracuse fans but don’t be shocked to see them make a run when March hits. If you didn’t get 200-1 odds a few weeks ago, I wouldn’t be upset. 50-1 are still solid odds. They have 5-6 veteran players and a good group of incoming freshman to make them a viable team in 2015-2016.

COLLEGE BASKETBALL WEDNESDAY FREE PLAY TEMPLE VS ST. JOES

Wednesday, 3 December, 2014

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Zack is now a documented 19-3 on the season in college basketball. Be sure to check out his daily plays under today’s picks. For Wednesday he has a free play between St. Joes and Temple.

Signs Lurk for an ASU Point Spread Let Down

Wednesday, 12 November, 2014

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Zack Cimini currently stands at 29-18 (62%) in college football this season and 30-9-2 (77%) in the NFL. Interested in winning ATS head to the today’s picks section

In Tempe, Arizona, Arizona State has had a shockwave season. When Taylor Kelly went down against Colorado many people had no idea who Mike Bercovici was. The junior quarterback was one of Todd Graham’s first recruits three seasons earlier. Bercovici went from fans wanting Kelly back immediately in a nationally televised blowout loss to UCLA, too the media stirring a quarterback controversy on a Hail Mary win over USC.

An Arizona State team that was seconds away from being 3-2 suddenly had a pulse. They’ve went on to win five straight games over USC, Stanford, Washington, Utah, and Notre Dame. At 8-1 everything looks good for Arizona State fans as their team sits cozy in the top ten. Yet I’m afraid the quick rise over the last month going 4-1 ATS will reverse course in Arizona State’s final three games.

Arizona State are one of the teams I make sure to watch every week. There are several factors that point to upcoming spread let downs and an eventual exit out of the top ten.

Taylor Kelly’s Struggles
Arizona State is winning but it’s had more to do with an emerging defense than from an offensive standpoint. The defense shut down Washington, Stanford, Utah, and all but one quarter against Notre Dame. Maybe Kelly is still having lingering issues with his foot as he hasn’t shown the same read-option speed from a year ago. Kelly’s read-option capabilities is what separates him from Mike Bercovici. From a passer standpoint Kelly can make the back shoulder throw with the best of them. It’s his pocket presence and accuracy down the field that has been a major problem. It almost cost Arizona State a chance for overtime against Utah. With Arizona State down 16-13 late in the fourth quarter, Kelly threw the football right into a Utah defenders hands that was dropped.

Second Half Coaching Adjustments
Over the last five to seven years Arizona State has been one of the best first half teams in college football. The problem for them has been halftime adjustments. For some reason or another Arizona State is awful at making necessary adjustments to increase their leads or get back into games. I believe it has to do with the simplicity of ASU’s play calling. Offensive coordinator, Mike Norvell relies heavily on Kelly’s read option and designed short route throws to Jaelen Strong and running back DJ Foster. For big plays they mix in a few down field calls for big target, Gary Chambers. The offense lags mightily when the read option isn’t humming. Defensively, Todd Graham’s philosophy has never changed. He calls blitz after blitz after blitz. Teams that can attack Graham’s chess match are going to score a ton of points like UCLA did this season and Texas Tech in January’s bowl game.

Scheduling
Arizona State probably had the best four weeks of matchups any Pac-12 team could ask for. Washington has shown they’re not the same caliber Pac-12 team they have been the last five years. Stanford is also in a transitional phase as a team. Utah hurt themselves by taking a lead against Arizona State and deciding to let their defense win the game. The play calling with a lead was far too conservative. And of course the Notre Dame matchup was a perfect for Todd Graham’s blitzes against Everett Golson. Golson has shown over the last month that he struggles at making quick decisions under pressure, and Notre Dame’s defense wasn’t exactly up to par against far lesser talent than Arizona State.

Quarterback Matchups
Kevin Hogan, Everett Golson, Travis Wilson, and Troy Williams have been the quarterbacks Arizona State has faced over the last month. It was Williams first start as Cyler Miles was out due to an injury. Travis Wilson has had to endure starting and being benched multiple times by Utah’s coaching staff. Kevin Hogan has shown he is not a Pac-12 viable quarterback, and Golson has been a turnover machine in seven straight games. Sean Mannion may be the quarterback finally able to challenge ASU’s blitzing style and force Graham to relent on his blitzes.

Campus Influence
Arizona State and South Florida are two college campuses that campus life can cause a disadvantage over the course of a season. Arizona State President, Michael Crow, has made it known he wants to lead the country in college enrollment numbers. That has led to an ever-growing campus of over 75,000 people. It has to be tough as an athlete being on a campus that crowded. I’m sure Todd Graham and his staff do their best to not make it a distraction, but with a team now ranked high campus vultures are surely floating around even more.

COLLEGE SATURDAY HANDICAPPING ADVICE

Saturday, 8 November, 2014

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My premium plays board has been set for a few days. Under today’s picks you can view the nine game weekend slate I have. Five plays in college football and four in the NFL. All college plays start after 12PM PST with the majority after four PM.

To view some analysis and free plays be sure to watch my NFL Sunday video with Kellyinvegas or weekly segments with John Cranton, and Hollis Barnhart via JimFeist’s Youtube channel.

Here are a few tips to help you this college football Saturday.

**Know your plays beforehand
Whenever there is a big college football board like today people tend to lose discipline. You must have your plays set before you arrive to your local sportsbook. I see it week in and week out where people start talking to their buddies or whoever and blindly placing extra bets. That’s exactly the same recipe that traps people in normal casino games. Stick to a winning formula. Go to your book with plays ready and stick to that throughout the day. If you get dragged into a negative day from improper discipline you have no one to blame but yourself.

**Parlays, live bets, halftime wagers, teasers
Full game ticket wagering is what 90% of the general population places a wager on. Live wagering is something that has taken off in Europe and is picking up steam in the United States. The crazy swings of a game aren’t worth a live bet in the late third quarter or fourth quarter. All that is doing is upping the handle of the sportsbook. There is a reason why the line is -110 on both sides.

**Lost value in line movement
This is an easy one to say but needs to be drilled in for a college Saturday. I see so many people have supreme line discipline for the NFL, NBA, and other major sports. But when it comes to college football it’s like a prism of feasting on Thanksgiving day. Everything is thrown out the window and you can gorge on anything you see in front of you. The magical stare at a prime SEC or Pac-12 game and jumping on the over on Saturday. Zero effort is given that the over/under total has moved 4-6 points since opening on Sunday. Don’t jump on a ship that’s set sail on Tuesday and expect to have smooth sailing.

Enjoy the games and let me know how you fared via twitter@cimini

VIDEO: NFL ATS PREVIEW WEEK TEN WITH KELLYINVEGAS

Friday, 7 November, 2014

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Watch as Zack Cimini and Kellyinvegas take a look at a few key games in week ten of the NFL season.