Point Spread Analysis From NFL Week 16


The fantasy football playoffs have concluded in the majority of leagues. Another area I like to focus on is analyzing the world of sports from a handicapping perspective. No sport is harder to gain a crucial pivotal edge on the books from a week to week basis than in the NFL. To succeed you need to pick your spots carefully. Here are some lessons learned from week 16.

Division Opponents Should Never Be Taken Lightly-
High lines to the favorite did not bode well. Dallas was just a field goal favorite but needed a valiant effort to keep the media off their backs for at least another week. Nonetheless they did not cover. The other shocker came with the Seattle Seahawks. Not that they didn’t cover, but that they lost outright at home. This was one of those games that the Seahawks finally surrendered via a poor offensive outing. There have been other games this season where they’ve been bailed out with late game heroics. Lastly, the Dolphins became the enemy of their own fate yet again. A shot at the playoffs seems slim thanks to their second loss to the Bills at the hands of quarterback Thad Lewis. With that performance Miami may have done themselves a favor to save embarrassment of a blowout wildcard loss.

Backdoors Always Rear Their Heads-
Those that had the San Diego Chargers minus the points should take the week off from any wagers. It was a win that you should have never won. But in sports this type of scenario always rears its head for the good and the bad. Oakland hung around this game and played to the number better than San Diego did. Marcell Reece gave all Chargers bettors an early Christmas present.

Totals stay Trendy-
Play the over, play the over, whoops week sixteen divided that thought to a high percentage of unders. It’s been a trend of game to game flow depending on the week. Much like the bowl games that started Saturday the over on a game always looks like your best friend. Week sixteen proved that the notion to seek consistent overs is still situational depending on the matchup.

Special Teams Negated-
Special teams typically can be a main factor in a handful of games on Sunday. This week however special teams were quiet in terms of punt returns or kickoff returns. Don’t have amnesia to discount special teams in week 17 and the NFL playoffs.


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