NCAAB Handicapping Tips: Thinking Long-Term


Experts in the sports handicapping world are a dime a dozen. Just like in fantasy sports the talk of achievement does not necessarily come to show at season’s end. The month of February can be an arduous trouble-maker for professional handicappers and sports players. Football is officially over and that means dedicated betting squarely on hoops.

Unlike football the hoops schedule is a never-ending seven day a week grind. From now until mid-March teams are pushing for viable positions before their conference tournaments.

In the power conferences seedings won’t move around very much but in the smaller conferences anything can happen. Last year Cal Poly, Milwaukee and a few others made the tournament by getting hot at the right time and winning their respective conference tournaments.

Rather than think short-term players need to think long-term. Don’t be afraid to take days off during the week even if there is a big slate of games on a Wednesday or Thursday in the NBA/college hoops. You did not handicap football seven days a week so why do it in the NBA or NCAAB?

Take some of the big slate days off and choose to evaluate teams rather than ferociously scour game action for lines. By March you’ll be in better position to make a deeper run ATS and see the results in your bankroll growth.

Conference play is one of the more difficult periods to handicap. Coaches are sharper but players are hot potatoes. Free throw shooting could be poor on a certain night. The three pointer may be falling at a ridiculous rate for the other team. Stretches of no buckets can happen in a blink of an eye. Big leads may evaporate and cause a gut-wrenching loss ATS.

The biggest difference in handicapping college basketball is the overall level of play. In the NFL for example you know the range of the Jaguars on a given Sunday. On a weekly Sunday their variance on a scale of a 1 to 10 as a team did not wane all season between the range of a 3-6. A power team like the Denver Broncos was typically in the range of a 7.5 to 9.

In college basketball though a power team that you would expect to be in the range of 7.5 to 9 could have an off-night and give an output of a 4. You can’t handicap a poor night out of the blue. It happens and you have to just file it away as a mental note of a team’s possible bottom.

All of these things and ten other factors are not “bad beats”. This is basketball.

I myself love the evaluation part of handicapping college basketball. There is truly strong money line value each and every night on underdogs of 7-12 points. Great kick backs to earn a little extra during a tough conference month. In fact personally before January I had a 51-14 ATS record. Now I sit at 87-50. That’s the exact same amount of wins/losses during that duration.

But I know with full confidence the evaluation part of handicapping will pay off before the end of the 2015 college basketball season.

Stay patient with your selections and do not get caught up in the daily point spread grind. If your looking at numbers too much than you’re already in the trap of a forthcoming free fall. Evaluating teams does not happen that way.

Good luck with the rest of conference play and if interested in sports picks services click under today’s picks. Follow me on twitter@cimini


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