NCAAB: ATS Value Against Current Top 25 in Conference Play


The first month and a half of the 2014-2015 college basketball season is in the books. Rigors of conference play are upon us and shall cause a typical frequent disruption in the current top 25 rankings. Finding value of top 25 teams that may fall out weekly rankings can be a gold mine for sports bettors. College basketball is one of the best sports where true metrics can be of a high value. A lot of teams have shielded their deficiencies with unbalanced non-conference scheduling. Here are a few teams that I believe are ranked above what their current play perceives with the eye-test.

Wichita State
The Shockers have one of the deeper backcourts in the country with Ron Baker, Fred VanVleet, and Tekele Cotton. But since their lost to Utah the team has been in disarray. Poor shot selection from their three guards and even poorer team defense should be exposed in an above average Missouri Valley Conference. The loss of CleAnthony Early is proving to be more troublesome than anticipated. The Shockers need to find an inside presence to lighten the load off poor perimeter shots. Struggles against Detroit, George Washington, and Drake.

Every year there are 2-3 teams that play a few notches higher in non-conference play than they will in-conference. Utah will likely be one of those teams. Their team defense and key upper classmen bode for disadvantages against non-conference opponents. In conference though there will be no secrets. Coaching staffs know the ins and outs of this Utah team. With Jordan Loveridge still out for a length of time, you can expect Utah to have their issues in-conference play.

St. Johns
The Johnnies already lost in their Big East opener to Seton Hall. Unless De’Angelo Harrison and the group of seniors on this team change their attitude of team defense you can expect a continued plummet. The spark to build a big lead or give up a big lead is always there with this St. John’s team. Offensively they never truly seem to have a rhyme or reason to their offensive half-court sets. It usually involves one on one shot creations from Phil Greene, Harrison, or Rysheed Jordan. They’re as dangerous as any team in the country when they play together. In-conference play though you can expect this team to lose their focus and have a poor stretch of 3-5 games.

Colorado State
Transfer U will have their hands full as they step into the thick of true conference play. Unblemished currently, Colorado State escaped a handful of games in non-conference play. In their first game against an undermanned Boise State ball club they found themselves down 28-13. They were able to surge a comeback but I do not see this team having the fire power on offense to sustain being a top 25 team. JJ Avila and Daniel Bejarno are solid seniors to have on any team but are not capable of leading a team to a high level of play. By mid to late February expect this team to have 5-6 losses.

I don’t expect Wisconsin to fall out of the top 25 but the bruising nature of the Big Ten is tough to escape for anybody. This goes back to coaching staffs knowing the strengths and weaknesses of every starter on Wisconsin. Defense rises in conference play. The team concept of Wisconsin is fantastic when the team is clicking on all cylinders. But a hiccup thwarts that concept without the reliance of 1-2 go to scorers on a bad night. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a young team like Indiana give this Wisconsin team trouble.


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