Waiver Wire

NFL OVER/UNDER WIN TOTALS AFC NORTH

Monday, 25 August, 2014

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Last week I took a look at the AFC East division for win totals. Today I’ll take a look at the AFC North. In the north the Bengals, Ravens, and Steelers have all had their share of successes over the last five years. Baltimore got it done with their reliable defense and steady arm of Joe Flacco. Pittsburgh’s nucleus hasn’t changed much either with the arm of Big Ben.

Cincinnati though over hauled their team when Carson Palmer demanded out. Right about that time is when the Bengals saw a drastic difference in the way the team played. It doesn’t mean Carson was a poor quarterback, it’s just a mark on the time line of the franchise. They retained Marvin Lewis which many people disagreed on and made better personnel decisions with their draft picks.

Still, oddsmakers do not have them out in front by much in the division. Lets take a look at the division and give a pick on over/unders.

Cincinnati 9– Pick Over
Many are doubting Andy Dalton’s contract and ability. They can doubt but there is no doubting the core of talent on the Bengals. It’s a sound team that has youth and growing talent on both sides of the football. In Baltimore and Pittsburgh both teams still have aged talent and question marks from last season. Both should be better but the Bengals have in my mind the best team in the division. They’re a bit underrated from the oddmakers because of the continued love for Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

Baltimore 8.5- Pick Over
Things just were in complete disarray a season ago in Baltimore. The Super Bowl hangover was in full affect. A new offensive system with Gary Kubiak should help riddle the offensive woes that lacked the punch to help their defense. Ray Rice’s down season wasn’t just shocking to fantasy football owners but to the Ravens overall. They’ll have a new look this year and be able to gain an extra couple of wins because of it.

Pittsburgh 8.5- Pick Under
Sometimes an organization needs to gut things out and make tough decisions. Since Hines Ward retired this team has lost its identity offensively and got worse on defense. They’ve become faster on defense but that’s not going to alleviate big plays from happening. Offensively I still don’t believe there is enough premier talent to get them back atop this division.

Cleveland 6.5- Pick Under
A few weeks ago I liked the over here. Normally I wouldn’t let preseason play sway my conviction but I’ll go a different route here. 6.5 is a steep number for a team with large question marks at quarterback and with a surely suspended top receiver in Josh Gordon. If the set win total was 5-5.5 my hesitancy to stick with the over wouldn’t of swayed. It’s just too large of a number in a tough division.

The Andy Reid Drag Down RB Factor

Wednesday, 20 August, 2014

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After last years fantastic all-purpose season by Jamaal Charles he has become the unanimous top back to get. Andy Reid has always ran a high velocity offense centered around the tailback. Success has been had in prior Eagles systems and running backs such as Duce Staley, Correll Buckhalter, Brian Westbrook, and LeSean McCoy.

A familiar link with all of those running backs is that there success was stymied eventually because of the heavy dosage they get. Duce Staley’s success started in 1998 and 1999 before injuries derailed him. He had a resurrection of sorts and become a capable fantasy backup with success out of the backfield in 2002 and 2003.

A similar pattern can be found in former star, Brian Westbrook. From quick memory you would of thought he had a great five year run as an Eagle. On the contrary he had two outstanding seasons followed up by a quick career burnout. In 2007 and 2008 he tallied career years with rushing yards of over 2500 combined and receiving yards of near 1200. Injuries quickly took their toll on Westbrook and he fell off quickly in a short stint with the 49ers.

LeSean McCoy was on his way to the same pattern in Philadelphia. His breakout seasons were in 2010 and 2011 before injuries took away a full season from him in 2012—-Andy Reid’s last year. Chip Kelly runs a high amount of plays but keeps has his players prepared for the volume and rotates them properly.

Now we turn to Jamaal Charles. In Charles first year under Andy Reid he saw a dramatic rise in his role as a Chief. His rushing numbers did come down a bit from the prior year but he caught 70 passes totaling nearly 700 yards.

This is looked on by fantasy football participants as gold. The old school workload that produces a gluttony amount of points in PPR leagues. Charles already had a serious injury that caused him to miss the 2011 season. A freak dorm exit injury has Charles currently with a bum foot.

That’s not alarming enough but I would have strong caution with everyone’s unanimous top fantasy pick. His utilization is bound to cause another Andy Reid overused running back to suffer during the season.

Championship Week Fantasy Football Adds

Monday, 16 December, 2013

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Kirk Cousins- There is no surprise in the way Cousins handled himself in relief of RG3. He did a fine job a year ago and seems more than able to become a full time starter in this league. As many have said this time for Cousins is more of a mini audition as suitors will likely line up for a possible trade in the offseason.

Matt Asiata- It went from a possible start from AP to latching onto Toby Gerhart in case AP was out, all the way to Asiata getting the non anticipated bulk of the Vikings carries. Asiata will be the epitome of a playoff fantasy wonder, but utilize him if you can.

Marvin Jones- Cincinnati has never been a fantasy darling of a team, but they are a viable team to snatch a few fantasy upside players from. AJ Green has not had the stellar numbers he did to start the season, and Andy Dalton is finding others to spread the football around to. Jones was a fantasy haven a few months back that has waned a bit. Don’t be surprised to see a strong finish from him.

Trent Richardson- Yes there are some leagues that even Richardson was dropped in as owners impatience settled in. This is now two weeks in a row that Richardson has shown a bit of somewhat of an increase in the Colts offense. With Donald Brown a bit dinged up it appears that the Colts will have to lean on Richardson by default.

Brian Hartline- Hartline continues to be the Davone Bess type of possession receiver that the Dolphins can rely on. Probably no one in football gets as many quick slants as Hartline as the Dolphins seem to call the play frequently to get their quarterback settled in.

Others: Doug Baldwin, Jerrel Jernigan, and Rashard Mendenhall

POST WEEK FOURTEEN WAIVER WIRE

Tuesday, 10 December, 2013

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From here on out the waiver wire edition will primarily be to those in your fantasy football playoffs. That makes it even more vital to pay attention to matchups and seek advantages for one time use. Of course there is still opportunity in extended nfl.com and yahoo.com for folks when the real NFL playoffs start.

Here is a look at fantasy football players to pickup after week fourteen.

Da’Rick Rodgers-It has taken awhile for someone to emerge besides TY Hilton on the Colts roster. After Rodgers big game against the Bengals it appears that the Colts have found their guy. This is a short term buy that won’t have any long term value.

Marcel Reece- Either direction the Raiders head next year at quarterback, they have to be elated at what their backfield has been able to do this season. From Darren McFadden, Rashad Jennings, and now Marcel Reece they have all enjoyed solid success. Reece’s carries all depend on the status of injured backs Jennings and McFadden.

Rod Streater- Oakland is not going to have a quarterback that puts up gaudy stats with his arm on a week to week basis. What they do have is underrated fantasy football wideouts. One of them is Streater, who has had a great ratio of 100 yard games for the amount of passing yards his quarterbacks have had.

Julian Edelman- Depending on your league search for Edelman off waivers. If he is taken look to pickup the next best available Patriot wide receiver off of waivers. New England struggled to develop at tight end without Rob Gronkowski earlier in the year. To make up for it they used more packages at wide receiver. Expect the same throughout the rest of this season.

Daniel Thomas- Who would of thought that an underachieving running back would finally get his act together with an offensive line aching for bodies? Thomas has taken on the role of feature back well and it surmised in his first 100 yard effort in quite some time.

Charles Clay- Perhaps no team has dealt with injuries or suspensions better than the Dolphins. Their patched offensive line has held up well and without tight end Dustin Keller they’ve utilized Charles Clay out of the backfield. Quietly he is putting up solid tight end stats. His best effort came this past week against the Steelers.

Shonne Greene- Even in years past as a NY Jet this would be the time of year that Greene would start to warm up. He is a big physical cold weather back. If the Titans can keep scoring above 20 points a game, Greene has true playoff sleeper value.

Toby Gerhart- Chances are the Vikings will decide to rest Adrian Peterson for the remainder of the season following his minor foot sprain. There is no reason to risk further damage to a guy that has battled back from a devastating knee injury. Gerhart would then be one of the few sole feature backs in the NFL, making him one of the hottest waiver wire pickups of the week.

POST WEEK THIRTEEN WAIVER WIRE

Tuesday, 3 December, 2013

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Brian Hartline- Mike Wallace may have started to surge lately, but clearly Hartline is still Tannehill’s main target. He caught nine passes for over 120 yards with a touchdown.

Lance Dunbar- Wow, Dallas actually ran the football for a change. Theyve done it a handful of games this year and have had success. Dunbar had a big impact on Thanksgiving and should continue to receive attention in the offense.

Ace Sanders- Sanders had his third consecutive game with 60 plus yards receiving. He is becoming the new Davone Bess type receiver for Chad Henne. Get Sanders if you’re in a PPR league.

Julian Edelman- The Patriots continue to feature Edelman over their rookie wide receivers and Danny Amendola. That may change when playoffs come and teams look to prevent the short pass. For now Edelman may be the extra boost you need for fantasy playoff success.

Michael Crabtree- Upon his return, Crabtree had a solid debut with 68 yards receiving. Adding him to the 49ers lineup has opened things up for Anquan Boldin and Colin Kapernick.

Andre Brown- Brown doesn’t have the flash of most tailbacks. In New York he will continue to get carries as the Giants play outdoors in low temperatures. Since coming back from injury Brown has added stability to the Giants offense.

Others: Andre Holmes, Ted Ginn Jr, Legarrette Blount, Montee Ball, and Doug Baldwin

Post Week Twelve Waiver Wire Adds

Monday, 25 November, 2013

Post Week Twelve Waiver Wire Adds

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The fantasy playoffs are just about here. Make the necessary moves before the games on Thanksgiving to give yourself an extra boost heading into week thirteen.

Carson Palmer
For those that have not been reading my weekly waiver wire adds I’ve listed Palmer the last several weeks. Chances are for how poor he was the first eight games of the year that fantasy owners probably wanted to see a few solid weeks from Palmer before considering adding. Well the Cardinals have been winning and the offense is actually matching the solid play of the defense. At this point Carson is an on the bubble fantasy quarterback starter in deeper leagues.

Ryan Fitzpatrick
Fitzpatrick has done this time and time again throughout his career, where he can be a perfect backup quarterback reliever. The time frame for his fantasy success is limited but he is as sporadic as they come. How else would a team offer him a mega contract like the Bills did? Tennessee could be tied with the Colts if they didn’t let the Thursday night game slip away. They’re by no means out of the division race with the way the Colts are playing and have a shot at the second wild card as well.

Brandon Bolden
The hot pickup was Shane Vereen from the Patriots. He delivered a solid outing in his first major action back Sunday. Owners didn’t expect Bolden to re-enter the fantasy equation. With LeGarrette Blount and Stevan Ridley seemingly ahead of him on the depth chart, but that may be the case after issues with fumbling. Pickup Bolden and see how Belicheck approaches the backfield situation.

CJ Anderson
Ball is owned in quite a few leagues currently. It’s Anderson that got some eye popping carries with the team in position to win. He muffed a handoff that he was fortunately able to get back on top of. Anderson’s fantasy value hinders on Knowshown Moreno’s status after limping considerably in his 200 plus yard effort against the Patriots.

Benny Cunningham
The constant shuffling in the Rams backfield is a conundrum many fantasy owners would just avoid altogether. But week to week since the Rams unseated Daryl Richardson as starter they’ve been one of the strongest teams in the NFL at providing fantasy points from the running back. It’s typically been Zac Stacy as the one headed monster, until Sunday when Cunningham joined in on the parade on crushing the Bears.

Tiquan Underwood
Mike Glennon is finally showing some progression and confidence as the Buccaneers have won three straight games suddenly. It’s not known if the Bucs will give Glennon their full vote of confidence heading into next season, but the talent to prosper is there. Glennon has been efficient by targeting Vincent Jackson for big games. Detroit did a good job holding Jackson in check but they couldn’t do so with Underwood.

Nate Burelson
Detroit’s Burelson was out with one of the flukiest injuries of the football season. His return this past week was needed greatly as teams have began to limit Calvin Johnson’s effectiveness in second halves. With the amount of throws by Matthew Stafford each game, having a guy like Burelson as an option can be the difference in playoff depth success.

Michael Crabtree
The 49ers passing offense can only go up once Crabtree fully returns. For all the negative criticism Colin Kapernick has taken for the 49ers ineffective passing attack, it isn’t all necessarily his fault. Since the 49ers week one shining offensive performance against the Packers teams took away Kap’s best wide receiver in Anquan Boldin. Kyle Williams couldn’t cut it at the second wide receiver position and was ultimately cut. Mario Manningham is still getting back into form and now soon so will Crabtree. This should position Boldin back into his comfortable role while boosting Vernon Davis’s presence. Crabtree should be worth a flier in deeper leagues.