Posts tagged with “notjustagame”

Defining Line Movement As Non-Value and Value

Friday, 17 August, 2018

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During the football season when I’m dialed in customers often times can’t resist asking extra opinions on games. My response is the same 99 percent of the time.

It’s not on the finalized board therefore I have no opinion.

That’s the final stage of a long week of board finalization with many steps along the way.

Custom weekly best practices I’ve delved into an inordinate amount of times the past month. One area that can be expanded on is recognition of line movement.

Tracking line movement throughout your own assessment is vital in reaching profitable goals.

In the NFL once I begin an ATS assessment the number I start with has to be the posting number once I finalize. For instance on a Monday as ATS evaluation begins the number may be -7. If I finalize on a Friday and it has jumped to eight it can no longer be apart of my board.

Of course if there are scenarios where one can purchase a half point I’ll keep it available.

One may say why would you let a full point line movement in your favor change your course in the NFL. It’s a year over year best practice that ultimately pays dividends on dwindling your NFL betting board appropriately.

College football is the exact opposite. For multiple years I was using the same theory in both the NFL and NCAAF of tossing a game, which had severe line movement.

It may be the same game on the field but ATS results and action are completely different. College football is typically a softer line with much more wiggle room ATS, while the NFL’s number is precise week in and week out.

Turning off a line movement from Monday to Friday in college football is a money burner. It’s a softer market as numbers posted aren’t as sharp. That leaves room for strong line movement, which should not turn a bettor off.

More times than not leaving that game off your board and finding another bet results in a loss.

Jump in on college football line moves and don’t even think about it in the NFL.

The Potency of Sports Opinions Labeled as Betting

Wednesday, 8 August, 2018

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Media takes on the world of sports betting have been frenetic. It’s at an all time high and likely to continue through the new waves of sports betting legalization.

Suddenly opinions are floating more than daily and fantasy sports takes. The race to chase the millions of sports bettors is the hottest market tied to sports.

NBA commissioner Adam Silver saw this years ago and soon every major league will be in the same territory.

It’s a market where the new age has yet to be determined. Old sales tactics from sports marketers fanned out in the mid 2000s. Sports handicappers migrated to a proper scope of an internet audience that can see true wins and losses.

Now there is an out of hand part of the current sports handicapper market that involves fake marketers and fake results to lure in buyers. But that type of scamming exists with any information type business. Most consumers are smart enough to dodge a profile of fake followers or a bogus name.

True handicappers are bettors first and foremost. They’re betting the games they give out and earning their dollars two-ways.

With what I’m seeing now media personalities are beginning to float opinions in the betting market as if it’s an NFL Sunday preview show. Head to head takes for bettors that are likely to put their dollars on a free opinion.

It’s a dangerous potent combination. Bettors want the lure of anything free or cheap. But these opinions are coming from non-sports bettors.

If you’re not putting a dollar down one does not have a proper opinion. There is simply no one to gauge a market if you are not in it.

With NFL being the toughest sport to handicap it should be an interesting six months as people lose money from the media chase of sports betting.

Where I see it headed is sort of the same direction ESPN’s ticker has went with a computer take of percentages on a team’s chances to cover ATS.

Cuse’ Made the Right Move

Saturday, 3 June, 2017

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Much has been said over the past three months on the decision to void Boeheim’s retirement agreement at Syracuse.

After a lengthy NCAA investigation Syracuse was deemed to have violated several NCAA rules.

Penalizing the school was handed down harshly via the NCAA. Syracuse was banned from NCAA tournament participation in 2015, and deducted scholarships for the next several seasons.

All in all many believe this was an over the top handling of levying penalties by the NCAA.

Deductions of scholarships one could expect but for as long as the allotted time just seemed outrageous.

Furthermore, Coach Boeheim was suspended nine conference games. Fortunately the Orangemen used that poor stretch to rally the rest of the season and to the NCAA Final.

The coach in waiting forever has always been Coach Hopkins. Hopkins passed up opportunities in the past including at Charlotte to remain the Coach in waiting.

While many expected the change over to happen seamlessly, I never fully believe that Boeheim wanted to go.

To see the domino happen of Hopkins taking a prime Pac-12 job cause a reactionary move many Syracuse fans wanted.

Boeheim in charge for as long as he deems proper not the higher ups.

It can never be denied how he has done for the city of Syracuse.

Losses or a return to the Final Four will not change my perception.

Go Cuse.

Can the Falcons turn a losing record into a playoff berth?

Wednesday, 26 November, 2014

Things are going from bad to worse in the NFL. Just four years after the 7-9 Seattle Seahawks became the first team in history to get to the playoffs holding a losing record, we could see the first 10-loss playoff team this year. All members of the awful NFC South have losing records, but despite how bad they’ve been this season, they still have a chance to make it to the playoffs.

If the season ended today, the 4-7 Atlanta Falcons would be in the playoffs and they are on pace to win just six games. The Falcons are listed as betting long shots to win the Super Bowl listed at +10,000 at most online sports betting sites.

To make things even more ridiculous, not only the Falcons could make the playoffs at 6-10 as NFC South champions, they would host a first-round playoff game against a Wild Card team that is likely to have 10 or 11 wins. Just one game behind the 4-5 Saints, the Falcons own a division-best 3-0 mark with one victory over New Orleans and two against the floating Bucs.

If that really happens, Atlanta would become just the second team in league lore to make the playoffs after losing five straight tilts during the regular season.That would be an embarrasement for the NFL, but will open the chance to analyze and implement the playoff format that the head of the competition committee has been proposing for years.

NFL’s head of the competition committee, Rich McKay, has made several tries to change the playoff format. The changes suggested include the fact that teams that play during the first weekend of playoff games (seeds 3-6) are seeded according to their regular season records and tiebreakers, regardless of whether they are a division champion or a Wild Card team.
A 6-10 playoff teams, or even worse, a 5-11 playoff team which is still possible, is probably what we need to get the number of votes needed to make bring some changes to the NFL.

FANTASY FOOTBALL: POST WEEK ELEVEN WAIVER WIRE ADDS

Wednesday, 19 November, 2014

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Black Friday and Thanksgiving are just a week away. That means fantasy playoffs are ever-so-close. Prepare yourself for that last stretch by reviewing possible player adds following week eleven’s games.

Andy Dalton
People love to hate Dalton but he is still a young quarterback in this league. Other quarterbacks have struggled at stretches of season’s and not taken as much ridicule as Dalton. With AJ Green and him connecting at a high rate it automatically catapults Dalton to a second tier fantasy QB (12th-17th).

Jonas Gray
Gray’s outing on Sunday night football speaks for itself. Now fantasy owners have to play the bidding war with fellow league mates or hope they have the first waiver wire priority.

Jerrick McKinnon
There are plenty of fantasy leagues where owners anticipated AP coming back and dropped McKinnon in advance. That has backfired as AP has been suspended. This is a premium position to go ahead and grab McKinnon as he has been an advanced PPR running back and a consistent all-purpose yards back.

Isiah Cromwell
The Browns decision to cut Ben Tate cements the new load Cromwell has been receiving. Cromwell and West have paired to be a solid backfield. With the cloud of Tate gone, Cromwell can be a solid fantasy contributor the remainder of the season.

Stephfan Taylor
It’s clear that Andre Ellington has been playing at less than 100% all season. The speed he possessed last season just isn’t there, which is probably due to the foot injury he suffered in preseason. Taylor returned last week against the Lions in a limited role, but don’t be shocked to see his carries climb up to the levels we saw before his injury.

Kenny Britt
Britt may be a one week wonder but his past stats as a Titan make him a worthwhile boom/bust addition to team’s struggling at wide receiver. His big play came early and proved to be all the separation the Rams needed to defeat the Broncos.

Toronto Big Men To Eye

Sunday, 30 January, 2011

By Zack Cimini

 notjustagame23@gmail.com

Teams that are transitioning are going to shuffle their lineups frequently. Toronto’s been in that scenario for many years. In the past though, they had the reliability of Chris Bosh. The over haul of the franchise features new guards in Jerryd Bayless, Leandro Barbosa, Sonny Weems, and DeMar Derozan. A backcourt nucleus they’re trying to figure out along with veteran Jose Calderon.

It’s definitely a team that is going to be in the cellar of the eastern conference and NBA for many years. Give credit to Raptors fans though. They show tremendous support unlike what they do for the Blue Jays. If this team is going to make any kind of shift it’ll start in the interior. We profiled Ed Davis a few weeks ago, but there are a couple of other guys to follow.

Amir Johnson, owned by just 57% of Yahoo fantasy rotisserie owners needs to be picked up immediately. Toronto seems to be leaning more in more in Johnson’s direction. He gives the team energy inside and brings it on both ends. Earlier on in the year he was foul prone, but lately he has been able to stay in games. In the month of January he is averaging near twelve points and eight rebounds a game. Remember, Johnson came straight out of high school in 2005 and went late in the second round. So he is starting to blossom just at the right point you see most young athletes do in the NBA.

If Johnson or Davis goes down, the Raptors have another big man that is still a project in Alexis Ajinca. A first round pick out of France a few years ago, he just hasn’t panned out to the NBA style. Against Milwaukee, January 28th, he did give the Raptors a solid twelve minutes. He is used sparingly though as he is too much of a liability currently on the court. A development player that is probably a year or two away from getting regular bench minutes.