Which Second Year Starting Quarterback Will Regress?


Last years success by rookie quarterbacks was at a pinnacle of achievement compared to years past success. Ben Roethlisberger and some other quarterbacks have had success but not to the extent that Ryan Tannehill, Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, and RG3 did in the same year. You can add Colin Kaepernick into that same discussion even though he was drafted a year earlier.

Defenses and NFL coaching staffs as a whole are all about adjusting to new looks. Advanced scouting sooner or later catches up to athletes. Just ask Mike Vick and the mini-success of the wildcat offense.

Of those five quarterbacks three will likely come down to Earth just a little bit, or experience more woes than they are accustomed to based on their success last season. All five can just ask Cam Newton how quick NFL defenses can adjust from year to year.

My suggestion is to not bank on any of the five from being your no questions asked number one fantasy football starter from day one in 2013.

Ranked from highest to lowest in order I believe they’ll finish statistically, with current value factored in as well

1. Andrew Luck
Luck made rookie mistakes mentally last year with his arm, but he had the best quarter to quarter progression of any of the rookie quarterbacks last year. The Colts never really held him down with play call management, and you would expect the Colts to compliment him a bit more with the running game this season.

2. RG3
There is a lot to be seen from RG3 from a health standpoint once he takes the field. Nowadays though a young athlete that trains at maximum capacity for rehabilitation you can’t expect the old adage, “it takes two years” to come back to full strength. Athletes are defeating science more and more and defeating that old adage. RG3 has already proven before at Baylor that a serious knee injury will not hurt his psyche. He understands the ins and outs of the game of football. With a quiet confidence amongst his head coach, Mike Shanahan, the two should develop nicely in year two

3. Ryan Tannehill
This is a surprise for most to see Tannehill sitting in the middle of the pack of the second year quarterbacks (besides Kap). Unlike the other four quarterbacks, Tannehill was held in check for the most part by the play calling of the Dolphins. They utilized their whole tandem of running backs, and game managed Tannehill. Expect Coach Philbin to trust his quarterback even more in year two. I honestly believe Tannehill was ready for more advanced play calling last season. These two have a history dating back to Tannehill’s college days. Miami might shock some people this year in the AFC East.

4. Russ Wilson
Wilson had the Tim Tebow factor as a rookie last season, in which he just found a way to win certain games. The Seahawks never appeared completely out of the game no matter what the circumstances were. Yet, I never became fully impressed with Wilson until the playoffs last year. In the regular season his quarterback play was erratic at times, and overvalued. Seattle has a great team overall and I think that bolsters Wilson’s presence on the team. An injury to big play receiver Percy Harvin does not bode well for Wilson either. I expect the competitive pressure from the rest of the division to hurt Wilson’s play as the season stretches beyond September.

5. Colin Kaepernick
He might prove me completely wrong, but I just do not like the sample size of Kaepernick’s games from a season ago. A full season of how he played and I’d be sky high on him like everyone else. His playoff performances were astounding as well, but the bulk of his success come on the read option. Defenses will figure that out to a better degree than the tactic the Ravens used in hitting Kaepernick. Speed has always been taken away from great running quarterbacks at some point (Vick, Newton, etc). Especially when it comes to the amount of volume break away runs over the course of a game. Kaepernick is going to need to do more with his arm than his legs in his second year as starter. I do not believe from a fantasy standpoint and his current projections that he will be able to live up to that billing.


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