SWEET 16 Wagering Advice

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The stats out there of brackets being busted pales in comparison to how poorly the large percentage of sports bettors have done thus far. After just four days of tournament play the Las Vegas sports books are faring very well. That’s not shocking when the underdogs went 16-4 ATS to start the tournament (play-in games included). Going into the round of sweet 16 here are a few tips to avoid falling into the public trap again.

Don’t fall for a Cinderella story
The Cinderella stories of teams getting to the Elite 8 or beyond have captured March Madness for years. This year though there are not “true” slipper Cinderella teams out there. Wichita State has been in this spot before, Xavier has defeated teams they should have in this tournament, Michigan State is a 7th seed doing well against favorable matchups. Putting a cinderella slipper on any of these teams is not justified. This a year that all teams remaining are true contenders not cinderella’s.

Money Lines
This goes hand in hand with the last recommendation but I believe it needs to be separated. People can make decent money pinpointing money line scenarios and wagering. The week to do that was last week in the tournament. NC State paid a nice +350-+400 if you picked them over Villanova. There were countless others as well. In the sweet 16 there will be a lot of solid games but I believe the point spread will be a larger factor this week. Remember you need an outright underdog victory to score your ROI and plus payout. A one-point loss is not going to cut it. If you see value to take a money line you should value the points like many sports bettors do.

Too Late to Grab Michigan State

On my twitter account @cimini I suggested during Michigan State’s slump that they remind me of UConn’s 2011 and 2014 team. They were at 100-1 odds at the time. I didn’t put in the wager and probably won’t regret it. After all they’d still have to win the whole title. The final four is a different story but there is high money driving the Spartans currently. Right now they’re at 15-1 to win the title. I think that’s a bit far fetched and people that are piling on this future have missed the boat. Maybe it happens but when value has been shot down this much I’d gladly sit out.


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