Contrarian False Starts

By Zack Cimini

Hut, hut,…..errrrr, penalties on the field typically result in a do over from a further distance. For fantasy owners there are no retries from deciding on that wrong player. A false start in fantasy means a poor outing and lots of pouting and jabbing. “Man I would of destroyed you look at my bench”. While you’re crying a river over the fantasy points buried on your bench, the opposing team has a breakout performance from their third receiver that you never would have started.

It’s not always how your team looks on paper. Drafting a perfect team is just not feasible. Often it’s the owners that reassess their weaknesses and upgrade via trades, waiver wire, and contrarian starts. It’s the law of averages with even the best athletes. It’s a sixteen game season and their just isn’t any position player that’s going to be lights out every week.

Here are some players that are either undervalued or I believe are due for a let down.

Rob Gronkowski- Contrarian View- Sit
The meter of discussion on Gronkowski has hit an all time high. Brady has hit his tight ends with such frequency, that owners are salivating at what Gronkowski will do without Hernandez. The two on the field together were able to attack defenses similar to a basketball team with a dynamic backcourt. Without the other things might not go as smooth.

Antonio Gates- Contrarian View-Start (Ignore last week and injury report)
I’ve got a reverse feeling for Gates. Rumors are circulating that Gates is hampered again by the same foot that kept him out a few years ago. Gates is a tough son of a gun, that finds a way to break out when least expected. After being shut down last week, you can better believe Gates will be factored in frequently this week.

Tony Gonzalez- Contrarian View- Sit
Sometimes old veterans will come out the gate with a flurry of solid games. LT did so last year, and faded quicker than Luke McCown’s starting job in Jacksonville. Last season he had seven games below thirty yards receiving. His success this year has largely been for the fact that Roddy White has been doubled, and Matt Ryan hasn’t developed with first year starter Julio Jones. Calm down on believing that Gonzalez is going to reemerge suddenly. He is a touchdown tight end, that’s it.

Brandon Pettigrew- Contrarian View- Start
Points, points, and more points have the Detroit scoreboard operator asking for a raise. After years of hardly working, he/she is probably having malfunctioning issues on getting the board to update so quickly. Owners have been disappointed in Pettigrew for his lackluster results, but it is way too early to think about removing him from starting consideration. Though Tony Scheffler has caught a few touchdowns with downfield routes, Pettigrew will get his shine sooner or later. With the rate that the Lions are scoring, Pettigrew will be a red zone factor anytime. Look for a decent game this weekend.

Shonn Greene- Contrarian View- Start
His first two games make you shake your head. He is the feature back for a team that is geared to make another deep postseason run. He has shown the skills every post season that he can be a dominant fantasy back. Yet the regular season has started off similar to the results of the past two. Unlike last year the Jets do not have fresh LT legs to rely on. Greene is their guy, and will have to bust out sooner or later. Fred Jackson had a field day last week vs. the Raiders, and is a similar back to Greene. Look for Greene to be a top five fantasy back this weekend.

Tony Romo- Contrarian View-Sit
The Redskins are Romo’s weakness over his career against them. With the infatuation over his outing last week, you have to ignore that and look at the present details. Romo will likely start, but is obviously still not 100 percent. The Cowboys receivers are dinged up as well, and will have to rely heavily on non starting receivers. Pressure on Romo and improper timing with receivers he isn’t use to, could be the cause and effect of a bad outing. Over his last four starts vs. the Redskins, Romo has averaged just 230 yards passing with a total of four touchdowns and four interceptions.

Cam Newton- Contrarian View-Sit
If you think of the pace of the first two games Newton played in, they were hectic freelance style games. Newton had the opportunities to throw for the yards he did, because both teams were dictating a pass over run game. Green Bay ran the football basically fifteen times, discounting Rodgers five scrambles. Arizona ran the ball about twenty times week one. That’s just the opposing teams. Carolina has abandoned the run all together the first two games. Jacksonville is one of the top teams in the league at attempts rushing per game. I could envision a heavy dosage of carries for both Jones-Drew and Karim to try and protect first day starter Blaine Gabbert.


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