There comes a time when a talented team gets overlooked on a point spread. Last week in the NFL it was the Denver Broncos against the San Francisco 49ers. Denver had struggled at covering the number like they did a season ago and public/sharp money got caught in the abyss backing the 49ers.
Tonight I see that opportunity with the Oregon Ducks. Sure, the Ducks have failed to cover a high percentage of games like they did a year ago. But unlike a month ago this team is starting to look like a top team. Defensively they seem to be getting better by each game, and offensively never was a big issue.
Cal is a typical Pac-12 team that likes to push tempo. It’s a great offense to have when you’re facing a team that doesn’t handle tempo and speed for four quarters but Oregon has no problem with frenetic teams. In fact they seem to morph into a better team when facing this caliber of an opponent.
Cal bettors will be quick to think that Arizona and Wash State had Oregon in check. Well, Washington State played Oregon well a year prior and Arizona seems to have their number.
I just don’t see a team of Oregon’s caliber sliding to the talent of their opponent three times in a season. Play Oregon tonight as they look to scorch the scoreboard and keep their longshot odds of getting a BCS berth going.
Over the course of my sports handicapping career I’ve had one NFL streak similar to the one I’m currently on. That was in 2012 when I had a 25-2 month altogether. But typically my double digit streaks come in one sport and that is college basketball.
To be at 81% ATS through seven weeks of the NFL season is a humbling position. I’ll continue to give out plays that I see the beneficial line of.
I don’t have a record-keeping database here personally. But as a handicapper on jimfeist.com and kellyinvegas.com I have the archives through their sites to showcase this. Head to kellyinvegas.com to see for yourself my exact wins and percentages by each sport.
Interested in weekly, monthly, or season packages send me an email at firstname.lastname@example.org or go to today’s picks to see the pricing.
Lets recap yet another wild Sunday in the NFL ATS. On my side of things it was another great weekend ATS. In the NFL I swept the board for the second straight Sunday, going 4-0. ATS winners were with the Dallas Cowboys, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, and best bet of the week on the Denver Broncos.
All played fairly well to their numbers except for the Cowboys being down by a touchdown in the second quarter to the Giants. They were able to turn things around and capitalize on big play after big play.
I do have Monday Night’s game as the last one on my NFL board for week seven. Thus far I am 20-5-1 ATS on the year for a whopping 80% in the NFL.
The current line has the Steelers at -3 and a total of 44.5.
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If you’re looking for consistency in ATS plays be sure to get on board with me. I’m 16-5 ATS in the NFL—-76%. To view this for documentation visit kellyinvegas.com where I submit the same plays via their picks archives database. Not on easy mark to achieve but it’s only through six weeks of the NFL season. Go to today’s picks and view my Sunday four game pass that includes MNF for just $65.
Instead of going the free play route I’ll delve into some handicapping tips for this week in the NFL.
** Limit your plays on totals. There are professional handicappers that steer clear of totals and it’s for a good reason. They’re difficult to pick on a consistent basis. Oddsmakers have a far and away better advantage on totals because of the unpredictability of miscues. Missed field goals, special teams errors (returns and muffs), defensive touchdowns, etc, can drag a total one way in a hurry. I always limit my total plays and it should be one of your trademark rules as well.
** Avoid playing the same team ATS on consecutive weeks. This is one of my personal rules because a winning ticket on a team you played the last week gives you a bit of a heightened influence on that team. You have a narrow view on them because you’re thinking of what they did for you last—CASH. Guess what, they’re not playing that team again this week and a lot changes in a span of a week. Ask people that bet Cincinnati after New England’s blowout loss to Kansas City. There are enough games to find better value without last week being an influencing factor.
** Prime time should not always be avoided. You shouldn’t be thinking about betting a prime time game after the Sunday day and afternoon games are complete. Or even Monday Night’s game on Sunday. Know your plays by before Sunday and stick to them. That gives you time to analyze the complete board and feel confident in your plays. Some people are scared to play the prime time games because of the money flow on them or to protect their gains or losses for the week. If you’ve analyzed the board properly and you like the Prime Time game, play it.
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View the rest of my premium College Saturday plays under today’s picks. I have three plays in-store including my line movement shocker
Rutgers football travels to Columbus for a Saturday Big Ten matchup against Ohio State. Odds have soared to -22 in favor of Ohio State and may travel further before game time. Fresh on people’s minds is the Ohio State game in which they obliterated the Maryland Terrapins. Line movement was against the Buckeyes before game time traveling down in excess of 2-3 points to just 4.5.
I think this week is the perfect time to capitalize on the underdog Rutgers. Rutgers is a team that isn’t the most talented but is a pesky team if they can avoid silly turnovers from Senior quarterback Gary Nova.
Rutgers is in their first year of the Big Ten, and has a good nucleus of upper classmen. All of these players have heard on campus, in the media, and in their football circles talk of heading to the Big Ten for multiple years. It’s finally here and the marquee game on all their minds has to be Ohio State.
Rutgers was always a pesk to Big East and AAC heavyweights even when overmatched. Just ask Louisville.
This won’t be an upset but I expect Rutgers to hang in to get an easy cover being spotted over three touchdowns.