Yesterday was a pretty straight forward day for most handicappers. Many have reported a great start to the season on Thursday. On to Friday though where the slate looks to be a bit more difficult. One game on the board is Villanova vs Syracuse. This game has had a shift in point spread movement.
Just a few days ago the point spread was 15.5 only to move yesterday to 18.5. Who knows what set off the spark but the line has since come back down to 15.5. It’s comparable to a hot stock that takes off and doesn’t have an end point. Once that end point is hit buyers realize it has exceeded its proper value.
Syracuse has been one of those .500 teams that sneaks into bowl games since the Doug Marrone era. They’ve done so by replicating the model of many up and coming teams, and that is too schedule early opponents that they can grab wins against.
This strategy has worked well for Syracuse over the last three years. Though there have been a few close calls, like a narrow win over Stony Brook a few seasons ago.
Villanova played decent against Boston College to open the season last year, losing 28-14.
Syracuse made it to a bowl game last year largely because of their defense and dynamic duo at running back. Using Jerome Smith and Prince Tyson-Gulley led to wins over NC State, Wake Forest, and Maryland. Second year quarterback, Terrelle Hunt, just didn’t play like a starting quarterback last season.
He was given the job over 5th year transfer Drew Allen, after Allen struggled mightily early in the season. Hunt wasn’t much better but he did not turn the football over. That ball control style worked against a weak ACC conference with a formidable Syracuse defense.
Syracuse did lose quite a few key players defensively. We saw last night in South Carolina that replacing defensive players is harder than it looks.
This spread would not be on my top plays for Friday, as the spread is too high in my opinion. I don’t have enough faith in Villanova’s offense or defense to back them either.