Predictions

POST WEEK FOUR FANTASY FOOTBALL WAIVER WIRE

Monday, 29 September, 2014

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Week four featured six teams on bye week to trouble fantasy owners around the country. Week five there are just two teams on bye. Plan ahead the next bulk of bye weeks this waiver wire period, and grab yourself one of the following options.

Quarterbacks

Joe Flacco
At home Baltimore is showing once again they are a force. With the running game on the uptrend, Joe Flacco has once again regained the form we witnessed in his elite playoff run two seasons ago. The resurgence has been done with veteran Steve Smith, who has caught fire with Flacco. Joe nearly had one of his oh-no interceptions against Carolina, but linebacker Luke Kuechly dropped the ball. Flacco is one of those spot starters that shouldn’t be on the waiver wire.

Mike Vick
I was one that believed whole heartedly that the Jets had planned to use Geno to neutralize Michael Vick’s health. A Mike Vick that plays 3/4ths of a season instead of a full might last the entirety. The rumblings with the fans have started and now the coaching staff awaits to pull the trigger. It may be two weeks away, but if you’re searching for a quarterback go nab Vick this week.

Mike Glennon
After a woeful first half, Glennon seemed shook that off for a phenomenal second half capped off by a game-winning touchdown throw. Sorry McCown but there is no getting your job back after that finish. Glennon has an arm to hit tall receivers Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson. Tampa Bay just needs to tone down their offensive penalties to keep offensive momentum going.

Running Backs

Justin Forsett
One week with a big game from Lorenzo Taliaferro and Justin Forsett was tossed aside in fantasy owners minds. Forsett might not be a high carry back but he has a definite roll for the Ravens. Sunday he made several key plays including a great run after the catch on a third and long to extend a drive. I wouldn’t pick him up expecting touchdowns from Forsett, but he can get you sneaky yardage and PPR points.

Branden Oliver
The Chargers must find something out of their running game soon. Philip Rivers is just carrying too much on his shoulders right now to continue at this rate. Plus, the defense hasn’t exactly looked sharp either. But neither Oliver or Donald Brown have been able to fill in adequately for Ryan Matthews or Danny Woodhead. Oliver will continue to get chances. With what we have seen from Brown over the last four seasons, I’d take my shot on Oliver.

Jerick McKinnon
Wow, Minnesota saw something to expose the Falcons and executed it to perfection. They ran the football down the Falcons throats and used a running back no one has heard of. I didn’t hear Paul Charchian or Matthew Berry giving a name drop on McKinnon. Now the Black Friday waiver wire rush will occur as owners scurry to scoop McKinnon. McKinnon didn’t find the end zone but has likely found himself a bigger role with Matt Asiata.

Wide Receivers

Mike Evans
Evans hamstring injury has not been diagnosed yet. Lets hope its just a minor issue. If it is a minor issue, Evans should be picked up in a heartbeat. Glennon had solid chemistry with Evans and got the offense going once they connected in the third quarter. This duo could make for a big young dual threat for years to come.

Mike Williams
Yes, that Mike Williams that has been a fantasy threat for several years when he was a Buccaneer. Off the field issues caused the Bucs to part ways and trade Williams back to his old college football coach in Buffalo. After being buried on the Bills depth chart, Williams has appeared to work his way back on the field. Will Williams be a one week wonder or will he continue to build off this week.

James Jones
James Jones has been captain of crunch time garbage fantasy points. Seeing as the Raiders are likely going to continue to suffer with blowout losses, Jones should be an adequate third or fourth wide receiver for fantasy teams. He is only owned in 47% of Yahoo leagues currently.

Eddie Royal
Royal continues to be that yearly fantasy football one week wonder teaser. Lets let him tease owners again.

Jarius Wright
Will have to see how impactful Teddy Bridgewater’s ankle injury is. If it is going to keep him out than Wright dwindles down as a non fantasy pickup. Keep an eye on Bridgewater’s status.

ANALYZING KEY LINE MOVEMENTS IN WEEK FOUR COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Friday, 19 September, 2014

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The market in college sports sees key trigger movements in point spread totals and lines all week. Many people look at the last minute fluctuation that occurs between Friday night and Saturday morning as a barometer of sharp movement. That typically is a toss up when it comes down to the final 24 hours.

An area that can’t be disputed is when we see line movement from Sunday through Friday in a game. That’s where you probably want to head for smart action. Lets take a look at four games that have had line movement throughout the week.

Some may think the value is lost because they may have missed out on two to four points. You can look at it that way, or you can say the market is telling you something. In the stock market when a stock soars five to ten dollars it typically doesn’t stop. More buyers buy and continue to push it upward. If you play all four of these games listed below, you’ll likely come out no worse than a split.

To view updated lines, visit Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Category: Automatic/Don't Do It, Handicapping, Predictions Comments (0)

WEEKEND’S PLAYS WILL BE AVAILABLE BY FIVE PM PST

Thursday, 18 September, 2014

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It’s been a great start to both college and NFL this season. Thus far on the season I am 8-4 in college football and 5-2 in the NFL. Stay tuned for this weekend’s pass. It will be available within the next few hours.

Anyone interested in this weekend’s college and NFL pass can get it for $75. This will include next week’s football plays free. Just click on today’s picks to take advantage of this offer.

FANTASY FOOTBALL: FIVE PLAYERS TO UPGRADE AND DOWNGRADE

Wednesday, 17 September, 2014

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Each Wednesday, Notjustagame.com will take a look at key fantasy football contributors to upgrade and downgrade based on the past week. When placing these labels of course these upgrades or downgrades can be viewed as short term and long term.

Upgrades

Andre Ellington
I’ll be the first to admit I was wrong on Ellington. Arizona has had key defensive injuries, suspensions, and was without Carson Palmer in week two. Ellington shook off a foot injury that was first reported to keep him out to suddenly becoming a dominant force in his second season. Teams haven’t figured him out yet, and the Cardinals are off to a 2-0 start.

Antonio Gates
Even if Gates season drastically declines he has already put up borderline tier one/tier two tight end stats. His week two performance against Seattle was one for the ages. He’ll look back at it as one of his many career moments. This from a tight end some fantasy analysts had ranked in the high teens to start the season.

Bobby Rainey
It doesn’t look like Doug Martin’s health will ever be to the level of a number one tailback. Whether that’s on the field health or playing with the injuries he has endured in his young career. Rainey on the other hand showed last year he can fill in admirably and did so in last week’s start.

Others: Mohamed Sanu and Eric Decker

Downgrades

Shane Vereen
Vereen can be a PPR monster but New England has made it clear that Ridley is their main tail back. Unless Ridley’s fumble woes resurface you have to take the Patriots back field for what it is. With Gronkowski back in the fold, Vereen’s pass catching value is diminished.

Hakeem Nicks
Nicks just doesn’t seem to have close to the skillset he had just four years ago as a Giant. He can still be a red zone threat, but between the 20′s he isn’t even a top 75 fantasy wideout. It’s time to move on from Nicks unless you’re in extreme deep fantasy leagues.

Jake Locker
It’s a shame that Locker can’t nail down the number one intangible of being an NFL quarterback, accuracy. It’s plagued his NFL career and eventually will lead to his starting role being taken away. Locker missed wide open receivers Sunday at home against the Cowboys. For the strong skills he has such as athleticism, passion, and leadership, he just does not have the accuracy to be in the NFL.

Others: Ben Tate and Anquan Boldin

HANDICAPPING: DON’T OUTSMART THE ODDSMAKERS

Friday, 12 September, 2014

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One of the biggest mistakes people make in handicapping a number in the NFL is believing they have a stronger opinion than oddsmakers. Some people write their own lines and if they see a three to four point spread differential from their line to the oddsmakers they believe they’re line is stronger. On the contrary, when this happens you should think again and likely X the game out or play the other side.

One of the worst mistakes you can make is believing you can outsmart oddsmakers. Las Vegas sportsbooks monitor each other and even view offshore lines to gauge the pricing market. The number is put out there to get value on both sides, not to land one-sided money.

The only sport I’ve seen lines be completely off on a regular basis is in college basketball. It’s a tough sport to predict even for oddsmakers early on in a season with transfers, travel, and incoming recruits.

This week there are a lot of high point spreads out there in the NFL. Don’t get caught in the hoopla of underdogs covering at a strong rate last week. That was last week, and the market was tighter from a point spread stand point as well. Pick your spots and find proper value according to what the oddsmakers have set.

Tier Two: Week Two Fantasy Football Best Matchups

Wednesday, 10 September, 2014

Tier Two: Week Two Fantasy Football Best Matchups

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It’d be great if you could count on your top three to four picks every week to hand you a win. It doesn’t work that way on the field in the NFL and certainly doesn’t in fantasy football. You need strong efforts from your tier two and sometimes even tier three athletes. Zack Cimini takes a look at tier two players this week that should pay dividends for your team.

Quarterbacks

RG3
I was glad to see that the media did not blame the Redskins week one loss solely on RG3. In the past that may have been warranted. But for the most part the Redskins loss the game against the Texans with team mistakes. Special teams allowed a blocked punt for a touchdown before half, and the team had two costly red zone turnovers. Houston’s defense is much improved and got after RG3 all day. This week should be a much better match up for the Redskins against the Jaguars. I’d expect the Redskins to score three to four touchdowns and for RG3 to have a nice day through the air.

Carson Palmer
Boy oh boy it looks like that magic wand to snap the Giants back to a playoff contender has officially snapped. New York use to be one of those teams people could just wait for that win streak to appear with. Times have changed for the Giants and the Cardinals will look to go 2-0. Arizona might have better offensive balance especially at the receiver position than Detroit. Besides MegaTron the Lions are still working in the rest of their talent. Meanwhile Arizona is stacked with Fitzgerald, Brown, and Floyd. Expect Carson to be able to gun the ball all over the field with little pressure in his face.

Other Quarterbacks: Ryan Fitzpatrick

Running Backs

Shonn Greene
This is a great week for fantasy owners to insert Greene as their flex running back. The Titans offense clicked in week one against an undermanned Chiefs defense. It’ll be interesting to see if week one was a true progression for this team or just one week. Greene knows his job is soon to be Bishop Sankey’s, but Sankey has done nothing to position himself as the top back in this dual backfield. We all saw how Carlos Hyde and Frank Gore paired to trample the Cowboys defense. Look for the Titans to mimic that recipe with Greene.

Carlos Hyde
It looks like the 49ers have once again discovered a gem by accident. Two years ago they caught a break when Kaepernick started because Alex Smith was injured. The team did not look back. This time they drafted Hyde to eventually replace Gore, who is in the final year of his contract. Dallas’s defense is always shaky but another team that has had a hard time stopping the run are the Chicago Bears. Look for Hyde to keep rewarding fantasy owners that drafted him late in rounds.

Others: Toby Gerhart, and Mark Ingram

Wide Receivers

Eric Decker
You could tell the Jets offense had a bit more synergy than any game witnessed a year ago. Eric Decker was one of the key names brought in to bring life to an ailing team at receiver. Decker’s not going to have an all world season like he did with Peyton Manning but he should shine as an underrated fantasy guy all year. Insert him in week two.

Torrey Smith
When inserting three starting wide receivers sometimes you just have to look for yardage value over touchdown possibilities. Smith is one of those guys this week that falls into the yardage category. He has always been a solid performer against the Steelers and I don’t see that changing this week. The Steelers showed last week that they still have huge holes in the secondary against a depleted receiving group of the Browns.

Others: DeAndre Hopkins and Marques Colston