Posts tagged with “zack cimini top sports analyst”

Sports Betting: Mind Trap Games Reading a Line

Monday, 6 August, 2018

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Finalizing a daily or weekly betting board is an art in itself. Bettors have their own style to a degree but one that never strays is a review of a line itself.

In prior ‘School of Handicapping’ videos I discussed different elements that can lead bettors to a poor or rewarding outcome.

Rounding out a board on certain weeks can be extra difficult. In the NFL season it can be a root cause as simple as extra teams on bye weeks, and in college football there can be difficult marquee matchups to read.

Within a routine bettors become accustomed to betting a certain amount of games. One may be a game away from their normal board that they seemingly can’t pinpoint what final game to take.

Some bettors may go into the betting day and wait to get a feel for the games before adding a play. This way of betting nine times out of ten will lead to a losing bet. One simply can’t get a feel for ATS value while watching current games with bets in progress; it’s just not possible.

Another avenue bettors fall for to finalize that final game is reviewing a games spread simply because of the number. All of us have fallen victim to it.

A steep underdog or a prime favorite gives the appeal bookmakers want. The draw of thinking why is a number what it is.

You’re suddenly just as bad as a bettor scooping up an odds sheet at a sportsbook. Drawn to the number instead of the matchup.

A prime example of this in college football last year was the Miami Hurricanes final regular season game against Clemson. The number did not stop rising prior to kickoff, which had some people thinking the value was on a 10-1 Hurricane team. Instead they were blown out 38-3.

A recent example in baseball would be the Arizona Diamondbacks with Zach Greinke on the mound as a steep favorite over the Giants and Madison Bumgarner. The line continued to go up on Greinke’s side with the end result being the Giants in a landslide road win.

In it’s own way these types of games should be referred to as mind trap forced bets.

Once you place the wager you’ll be thinking why did I bet a game that was not on my initial finalized board.

You don’t have to force a play to get to your weekly routine goal. Take each week in stride and you will have more plus weeks than negative.

Cardinals Veteran QB Routine an ATS Gem

Monday, 6 August, 2018

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Post the Jake Plummer era the Arizona Cardinals revamped their ways to a veteran mentality in key positions. Without a doubt they have been a fixture in the league for veteran running backs and quarterbacks over the last decade.

Backs have included Emmitt Smith, Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Rashard Mendenhall, and even Edgerrin James.

At quarterback it’s been much more simplistic. Aside from a stretch of utilizing Kevin Kolb and John Skelton it’s been three guys in Kurt Warner, Derek Anderson, and Carson Palmer.

All three were high ATS producers. Warner’s best stretch came post 2006 when he put the drafting of Matt Leinart to bed. Anderson’s stretch was much shorter (first five games) as he lasted just a year as starter with the Cardinals.

Aside from last season Carson Palmer’s prior four years with the Cardinals ATS numbers were top five. They were defeating the number so well that by 2016 value was seemingly against them every week.

A commonality to all of these eras was the proper offensive coordinator. Todd Haley led the Cardinals and Kurt Warner. Head Coach and play-caller Bruce Arians drove success with Carson Palmer.

Now a new veteran era begins with the same elements in-line as Warner and Palmer.

Both had injury issues with Palmer missing several stretches as a Bengal and Raider. Warner had a nagging hand injury that ended his tenure with the Rams and nearly cost him his backup spot with the New York Giants.

Can the Cardinals do it again with Sam Bradford? Numerous injuries have also plagued his career and this will be his fourth team overall.

Just as in prior veteran quarterback signings the Cardinals announced a new offensive coordinator in Mike McCoy.

McCoy’s runs with the Broncos and Chargers should fit Bradford’s abilities well.

Cardinals GM Steve Keim may have another hidden ATS pairing with Bradford-McCoy.