Posts tagged with “top sports betting analyst zack cimini”

Defining Line Movement As Non-Value and Value

Friday, 17 August, 2018

Follow on Twitter@cimini

During the football season when I’m dialed in customers often times can’t resist asking extra opinions on games. My response is the same 99 percent of the time.

It’s not on the finalized board therefore I have no opinion.

That’s the final stage of a long week of board finalization with many steps along the way.

Custom weekly best practices I’ve delved into an inordinate amount of times the past month. One area that can be expanded on is recognition of line movement.

Tracking line movement throughout your own assessment is vital in reaching profitable goals.

In the NFL once I begin an ATS assessment the number I start with has to be the posting number once I finalize. For instance on a Monday as ATS evaluation begins the number may be -7. If I finalize on a Friday and it has jumped to eight it can no longer be apart of my board.

Of course if there are scenarios where one can purchase a half point I’ll keep it available.

One may say why would you let a full point line movement in your favor change your course in the NFL. It’s a year over year best practice that ultimately pays dividends on dwindling your NFL betting board appropriately.

College football is the exact opposite. For multiple years I was using the same theory in both the NFL and NCAAF of tossing a game, which had severe line movement.

It may be the same game on the field but ATS results and action are completely different. College football is typically a softer line with much more wiggle room ATS, while the NFL’s number is precise week in and week out.

Turning off a line movement from Monday to Friday in college football is a money burner. It’s a softer market as numbers posted aren’t as sharp. That leaves room for strong line movement, which should not turn a bettor off.

More times than not leaving that game off your board and finding another bet results in a loss.

Jump in on college football line moves and don’t even think about it in the NFL.