Weekly Analysis

Post Week Three Waiver Wire

Tuesday, 25 September, 2012

Twitter Questions @Cimini

It was a catch by Golden Tate, just watch the replay.

What a way to lose a game, lets hope that you’re not a fantasy owner that is challenging the extra nine points Golden Tate received because of that. Dive in to this weeks waiver wire selections.

Quarterbacks

Andy Dalton-
There is no ignoring Dalton’s accuracy. Last year the Bengals ran the football a heavy amount and Dalton’s play was more about wins than flash of stats. Cincinnati realizes they have a dynamic duo in Dalton and AJ Green. Until teams figure out how to stop AJ Green, Dalton’s fantasy value as a quarterback hovers around the mid teens.

Running Backs

Tashard Choice-
The Bills injury woes continue at least temporarily. After a rough first week, the Bills have turned things around to go 2-1. In large part to each of their three running backs being able to step in without a problem. Choice has been able to fill in as a Cowboy in years past, and will likely get the next game or two of a higher amount of carries. Fred Jackson is expected to get some snaps this week, and Spiller may only miss one game.

Andre Brown-
Tom Coughlin is not one to shy away from making a decision when necessary. Andre Brown has proven to be a back that deserves to get a fair share of carries. Even when Ahmad Bradshaw returns, Brown figures to have an impact role in the Giants backfield. The fact that Brown was available in over 35 percent of Yahoo leagues before week three is shocking.

Lamar Miller-
The Dolphins dodged a bullet with Reggie Bush’s knee injury not being as serious as it looked. Either way both Bush and Daniel Thomas have shown that they are injury prone. Miller has quietly been getting a few carries each game. Miami plans on keeping Tannehill as comfortable as possible. Running the football is the best way to make that happen.

Alex Green-
Cedric Benson just is not getting it done for Green Bay. The offense is suffering because of it, and a move will need to be done soon to get the running game boosted. Green Bay is beginning to see why many teams passed on Benson originally. Green could be the fantasy running back pickup similar to James Starks was for Green Bay a few years back.

Mikel LeShoure-
LeShoure came in right off the bat and had twenty six carries for 100 yards. It was a bit of a surprise to see LeShoure get that much action, as Kevin Smith was doing a suitable job. Most anticipated a split load as the best scenario for LeShoure. Based on Sunday, it’s clear that Detroit believes LeShoure is their guy to handle the load 100 percent.

Wide Receivers

TY Hilton
With Austin Collie officially declared out with a knee injury, Hilton gets the full opportunity to get much more on field snaps. Reggie Wayne has shown zero signs of declining, but Donnie Avery is a questionable number two. Hilton had a big week last week, and as a young emerging talent could mesh very well with rookie Andrew Luck

Chaz Schilens
It’s been quite awhile since Schilens has done much of anything on the football field, as injuries have threatened his career. New York has stuck with him and they’re in dire need of a receiver to step up besides Santonio Holmes. Stephen Hill is not ready to take on that type of role. With Schilens now getting some reps on the field, he’ll have a chance to be the tall speed receiver Sanchez can target. Sunday versus Miami he should have had a touchdown catch, that was thrown off a tad by Sanchez.

Post Week Two Waiver Wire

Tuesday, 18 September, 2012

Twitter Questions @Cimini

Has the fat lady begun singing for your fantasy team(s)? Did you over indulge in drafts with your buddies and plan on exiting by dodging logging in to a certain league? That’s not the way to participate in a fantasy league. Fight every week by making the proper moves via the waiver wire and necessary roster adjustments. Here is a look at week two’s waiver wire pickups.

Quarterbacks

Joe Flacco-
Flacco is dazzling to start the year. Even in a loss he outdid Mike Vick by a large margin, and had a touchdown called back on an offensive pass interference that shouldn’t have been. I listed Flacco as the top breakout quarterback performer this year, and still believe he will continue to perform strongly. He has the faith of his organization that has finally translated into pass play calls. With the weapons around him and his increased confidence Flacco may be on his way to the Pro Bowl.

Sam Bradford
Last year Bradford looked like he might be headed for doom with constant injuries. The change to head coach Jeff Fisher seems to be what the doctor ordered. He has his health back and the team seems to be responding much better with the overall change. Remember just a few years ago Bradford had the Rams in a battle to almost get the last spot in the playoffs over Seattle. Seattle snuck in and made history by defeating the Saints, but it’s not a far stretch to see Bradford resurge and turn things back around.

Andy Dalton
By no means is Dalton to be considered a fantasy starting quarterback. He has a ways to go to get there, and the offense the Bengals run will likely prevent him from being a major fantasy threat. His strengths are with his accuracy, and natural chemistry with his team of receivers. By next year Dalton will be beyond a sleeper for many draftees to think about as their signal caller.

Alex Smith
Smith was on the list last week but comes back on as he is available in 50% of Yahoo leagues. The flash isn’t there but the consistency is. San Francisco seems more balanced than ever offensively, at a time when Alex Smith just is not making mistakes. It’s as if this team knows there going to be right back where they were in the NFC Championship game in January.

Ryan Tannehill
As the season stretches Tannehill may be right behind RG3 and Andrew Luck for rookie quarterbacks in terms of fantasy numbers. Russ Wilson’s impact in Seattle’s offense is going to remain on a small scale. As the team will rely on their defense and Marshawn Lynch each and every week. Tannehill just seems unrattled by whatever occurs on the football field. With the backfield weapons he has, Tannehill will be able to mature on the field and grow properly as a quarterback. His advantage for fantasy points comes with his legs as he has the capability to stretch out plays.

Running Backs

Mike Goodson-
If you’re in a PPR league Goodson has value right now. Most of the minimal owners that own Goodson are just handcuffing Darren McFadden. With the issues the Raiders are having at receiver, Carson Palmer has checked down to his running backs plenty of times in the first two games. The bonus with Goodson will be if McFadden misses anytime like he has his entire career.

Andre Brown-
Brown did a solid job filling in for the injured Ahmad Bradshaw against the Buccaneers. Who didn’t have a great fantasy day for the Giants? Brandon Jacobs had fantasy value that tapered off as his seasons dwindled with the Giants. With the Giants limiting the carries of David Wilson after his early season fumble, Brown is the guy until reassuring news unfolds for Bradshaw.

Vick Ballard-
In the Colts old coaching regime, Donald Brown had fallen on thin ice based on performance. Delone Carter was drafted and had a chance to take over Brown’s job. Now he is the one that is not in good view with the Colts coaching staff. Brown had a decent preseason but has had two poor outings to start the regular season. One more poor game and Ballard may start to get closer to the ten carry mark and turn the backfield more into an even share.

Wide Receivers

Danny Amendola-
There won’t be a player hotter than Amendola trying to be snared in half the leagues that he is currently available in. No one knew who would rise in the Rams receiving group, or if anyone would even be fantasy worthy. Two games in and Amendola has had a start that would make Larry Fitzgerald owners jealous. He did fumble against the Redskins that led to a defensive touchdown, but his play more than made up for that and led to the Rams gaining a victory.

Brian Hartline-
The past two years the Miami receiver that had the highest value was Brandon Marshall. With him gone everyone expected Davone Bess to continue to rise for the Dolphins. Tannehill had different thoughts, and his main target after two weeks is Brian Hartline. A big game with minimal catches is a fluke, but one with nine catches is not. Tannehill is looking his way often and will continue to do so.

Martellus Bennett
How did the Cowboys not implement Bennett all those years? Eli is obviously coming off a prolific passing day, but Bennett is a new found weapon for Eli. His size and ability to get down field have just added another deep threat weapon for the Giants passing attack. At this point if you drafted a tight end after the big five, you may want to make a change and snag Bennett.

Robert Meachem
Meachem went without a catch week two and some of you are likely puzzled on how he is on the waiver wire report. For whatever reason Rivers just has not looked his way yet. An NFL season is long though and there are still fourteen games. Rivers is likely going to be in the top ten in pass attempts this year and you have to figure Meachem will be involved sooner or later. With him being available in 25% of leagues and probably more after his week two performance, it’s a gamble worth taking for a receiver in a high impact offense.

Week Two Wonders

Monday, 17 September, 2012

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Week two had that usual dramatic appeal that we all have come to love in the NFL. The great plays, hits, and fourth quarter play. Fired up coaches and players, and the comical replacement referees. There were not too many prolific individual performers that jump out on a given week, but there are still some that played way above what their season weekly average will be.

Quarterbacks

Brandon Weeden
Talk about a reversal for Weeden. He looked like he might take a full season to properly adjust to the NFL. Kind of like what use to be the trend for a rookie quarterback. All it takes is a solid running game for a rookie or veteran for that matter to be relaxed. As long as Trent Richardson is able to rush the football like he did Sunday, Weeden will feel less pressure but his issues with turnovers are not going to disappear completely. Cincinnati’s pass defense has a ways to go. Weeden will be tested all year vs. the Baltimore Ravens, Steelers, and plethora of other tough defenses.

Matt Cassel
And the winner for garbage fantasy points of the week goes to……Matt Cassel. With the Chiefs down 35-3 in the fourth quarter, Cassel came out firing like the Chiefs were down by a field goal. He hit Dwayne Bowe for two touchdowns and ended up eclipsing the three hundred yard mark. Cassel in the Chiefs look like they are in a world of hurting again, after starting the season with two straight blowout losses.

Mike Vick
Vick makes this list based on his turnover rate to start the year. For how poor the Eagles have played they have managed to squeak out two victories. If those games would have been losses, Vick’s five interceptions to start the year would have been magnified by the media. He’ll calm things down and the team will adjust as whole and rally behind Vick.

Running Backs

Lamar Miller
Miami ran wild all over the Raiders defense even with quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Daniel Thomas missed the game but will remain a big part of the Dolphins backfield. Reggie Bush had twenty six carries and a field day as well. This backfield is dynamic and maybe Miami can use all three backs to keep things simplified for Tannehill and allow for growth. Miller is one of those backs you can stash for a rainy day if you have the roster spots available to do so. Other than that, his fantasy point total this week will likely be his high for the season.

CJ Spiller
It’s not that CJ Spiller won’t have great value but at the rate he is doing it is in question. He is averaging a ridiculous amount per carry, because he has broken off long gainers in both games this season. His carries have not eclipsed fifteen in either game. He is definitely the leagues new home run back but will it tail off, and how will Fred Jackson affect Spiller upon his return?

Wide Receiver

Brandon Tate
Tate reappeared after being yet another forgotten receiver that has departed New England. Andy Dalton is a capable quarterback of spreading the football around, but they are not going to dazzle the league weekly with points. You’re probably looking at a team that may average in the high teens to low twenties at best. Dalton is also not going to be in the top fifteen for touchdown throws by a quarterback. That lessens the value of a receiver especially a third such as Tate.

Mike Williams
Williams makes a repeat entry into the wonders category. He just does not perform for full four quarters as a receiver should. Maybe these two touchdowns the last two weeks will turn things around, but he just does not get enough catches to make him a fantasy starter. If he isn’t scoring touchdowns he is not worth starting. Unless he scores sixteen touchdowns that just isn’t going to happen. He has had five catches this year and two for touchdowns.

Dante Rosario
All Rosario did was infuriate all the Antonio Gates owners out there. Tennessee didn’t want to cover Rosario in the red zone thinking that he can’t catch the ball or without Gates the Chargers do not have a tight end. Obviously Rosario will not repeat a three touchdown performance. Keep an eye on Gates though as the injury history is prevalent every year.

Week Two Fantasy Starters

Friday, 14 September, 2012

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Don’t get over anxious for your fantasy starters submissions. There is always that hole of a fill in spot that you’re undecided about. It comes down to the best matchups, and flex or lower tiered starters that you can get the highest point value out of. Eye the right guy. Here are some names that likely won’t dot anyones starting lineups. Be the contrarian fantasy owner and take a risk with one of your last starting fill in spots.

Quarterbacks

Matt Cassel
Kansas City hung in with Atlanta for two quarters before the offense sputtered and couldn’t keep pace. Kansas City has talent on offense now and Cassel is finally starting to settle in as the Chiefs quarterback. Buffalo gave up a ton of yardage against a Jets team that struggled mightily in preseason action. That trend is not goin to end this week.

Christian Ponder
The Vikings second year man does not get the notoriety that Cam Newton and Andy Dalton have. Ponder replaced McNabb a year ago and showed a knack for evading pressure and holding steady in the pocket. Both of those traits had been impossible for McNabb to do on aging legs. While the focus of this matchup is going to be shined on Andrew Luck, Ponder will be the one that steals the spotlight and outshines Luck.

Kevin Kolb
Kolb is one of those guys that can perform well when the pressure is off him. As a backup in Philadelphia he played terrific, well enough that Andy Reid almost named him starter officially over Donovan McNabb. With Skelton out for a limited time frame Kolb is the starter for at least a game. The pressures off and Kolb has nothing to lose. He can regain the Cardinals coaching staffs confidence in this one.

Josh Freeman
Freeman is many prognosticators favorites to have a bounce back year and be relevant from a fantasy perspective. Week one was a defensive battle where Freeman handled the lead and played within the stages of the game. Things will be different this week against a Giants team that is going to put up points. Freeman’s arm will be on display, and that he will hook up with Vincent Jackson quite often against a banged up Giants secondary.

Running Backs

Curtis Brinkley
This is a head scratcher at first glance from many people, as Brinkley is not known by anyone. This of course will be up to the injury update of Ryan Matthews. If Matthews does not go, than Brinkley is my breakout canidate of the week. The undrafted player out of Syracuse will get some looks, probably a higher amount than week one. Ronnie Brown just does not have anything left. Brinkley will get ten plus fantasy points this weekend.

Kendall Hunter
Hunter had an impressive nine rushes week one. The 49ers want to secure their health throughout this season and into the post season. In order to do that Hunter’s involvement is only going to rise. Veteran running backs such as Gore face all types of minor injuries as the season goes on. Hunter is going to rise up running back weeks every week. In a game where there will likely be points put up by both teams, you have to figure Hunter can get in on the action. Expect a solid eight to ten fantasy points from Hunter. Solid numbers in deep leagues if you’re looking at a flex option.

DeAngelo Williams
Carolina abandoned the rushing attack early after no success against Tampa Bay. Cam Newton sometimes is more of a threat on a weekly basis out of the backfield than any one on the Carolina roster. Week one Newton and the offense struggled for obvious reasons. The balance of playcalls was horrible. They’ll go back to the basics and get the running game its proper amount of play call selections.

Jonathan Dwyer
Pittsburgh is unsettled on who to give their carries too. It will be a split carry load until one of the backs stands out. Dwyer seems like the back that can do the most with the football over Isaac Redman. All it takes is that one game for an unsure backfield to be overtaken. In a prime time game against the Jets the Steelers will look to run, run, and run the football more to control the clock. They did a very good job of controlling the clock against the Denver Broncos, but were out done by a Peyton Manning with a chip on his shoulder.

Wide Receivers

Kevin Ogletree
This one is really going to get all the Ogletree waiver wire owners drooling and hyping up his trade bait. Seattle’s defense is typically good, but an area they struggled against the Cardinals was covering the third receiver. Cardinals receiver Andre Roberts had several key catches including the game winning touchdown. Tony Romo is a considerable upgrade over Skelton or Kolb. When Romo gets a connection developed it continues. Miles Austin came out of nowhere a few years back and so did Laurent Robinson last year.

Jared Cook
San Diego’s secondary was either impressive or Carson Palmer has lost it completely. After minimal starts as a rookie Tennessee will keep things simple for Jake Locker. A young quarterbacks best friend is always at tight end. Cook has the skillset to have a strong year, and in this game against San Diego don’t be shocked to see him have more fantasy points than Antonio Gates.

Brandon LaFell
Teams are geared up to do everything they can to force Cam Newton into discomfort. It’s going to be hard to do on a weekly basis, but division rivals saw Newton twice last year. Tampa Bay made sure the third time was difficult last week. New Orleans gets their third shot as well. You’d expect them to be ready to shutdown Steve Smith better than any other team, as Smith had two of his seven total touchdowns on the Saints a year ago. LaFell is a breakout game away from being considered a top thirty to thirty five fantasy receiver.

Sidney Rice
By no means will Seattle be in this game vs the Cowboys. In fact I expect it to be the ugliest game of the weekend. Ugly blowouts do not eliminate fantasy value from a team, especially at wide receiver. Rice seems to finally be healthy and displayed impressive routes week one against the Cardinals. As the game gets uglier look for Rice to rack up the most garbage fantasy points of the weekend.

AP’s Week One an Anomaly

Tuesday, 11 September, 2012

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The percentage of fantasy football owners that likely sat AP week one over starting him was likely sky high. Minnesota kept it under wraps until near kickoff that Adrian Peterson would start. Even hearing that Peterson would start, the idea of him getting a significant amount of carries seemed minimal. Maybe ten carries if he looked okay on his first few carries.

For a player coming off a major knee injury and having zero reps in preseason, the precaution red flags were up for fantasy owners. Minnesota had barely let the team tackle him in practice leading up to the week one game. Peterson had set a goal to make it out on the field by week one when he first got hurt, and it looked like the Vikings were giving him the start to feed his appetite and fulfill his goal.

Not only did Peterson boost his teams confidence with his presence, he was one of the top fantasy backs of the weekend. Rushing for over eighty yards with two touchdowns. He had a burst through the line and though he did not make too many sharp cuts that were use to seeing, he had enough straight ahead runs to show that he had a very dedicated recovery to get back out onto the field.

Dedication and how the body responds after his first football game are going to be two different things. Bodies have a hard enough time responding to a football game when healthy. Now will see how the knee responds in week two and beyond. Many NFL players have said it takes a full two years to come back 100 percent from tearing up their knee.

A great deal of Peterson’s week one success likely could be attributed to adrenaline and his first appearance on the football field. That is going to go away sooner than later, as adrenaline can’t fuel the body alone. It’s hard to put Adrian Peterson on a fantasy wonder performance but week one may have been just that. Short yardage plunge touchdowns are one thing, but the amount of carries and impact in every down situations is going to be an up and down battle.

For most of the game Jacksonville had kept Peterson’s yards in check, until the fourth quarter and overtime was when Peterson started getting some longer runs.

So was week one a mirage from Peterson? I believe a fall off will occur with him over the next few games to a month. An athlete just cannot turn it on suddenly with minimal practice and a full nine months off the football field. Peterson is a freak athlete but even his body is going to go through the agony of pushing his knee to certain levels throughout the season.

Minnesota will likely tone down his practicing throughout the year, as he will need to continue to be monitored. Peterson is a tier one fantasy back from the standpoint that he will be a “Leroy Hoard” for touchdowns. Games of 130 yards or more that have been typical from Peterson just are not going to happen this year. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Peterson have more games with sixty to seventy yards rushing than he does of games over 130 yards.

Waiver Wire Post Week One

Tuesday, 11 September, 2012

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So you lost week one in your high stakes auction or fantasy league. Your buddies are getting on you and it has you in the mindset that you can’t go 0-2. After all the smack talk after your draft you’re in need of a jolt to sidestep being the message board tagged “it”. The bogus trade offers are pouring in to try to sway you in over reacting on week one.

Do not do that, but take a look at the bottom of your roster and look at the buried depth you can dump. There were plenty of week one performers that can help you out immediately and in the long run of the 2012 fantasy season.

Quarterbacks

Joe Flacco-
What has been holding back Joe Flacco over the years has been the Ravens play calling. When called upon Flacco has shown the arm and capabilities of leading the team. The conservative passing game days are done in Baltimore. They’re going to run the no huddle and keep teams off balance with the air attack. Before big plays from Flacco would come off dump passes to Ray Rice, or the occasional bomb to Torrey Smith. It’s going to be a good mix from here on out. Flacco is a borderline fantasy starter with this new offense, and will help teams that are in need of an upgrade at quarterback.

Alex Smith-
There are a few differences with the 49ers that will make Smith a fantasy backup. Frank Gore has been one of the most warn down backs based on carries over the years. He has not necessarily been healthy either. Smith has developed a strong connection with Vernon Davis that is one of the top five quarterback to tight end connections in the league. Randy Moss may be quiet in front of the media, but the 49ers signed him to be a threat. Whether that’s a decoy to free up Michael Crabtree and Mario Manningham, or getting past the defense as he did in week one. Smith will have sneaky stats all year long with a receiver corp much better than the names of Ted Ginn, Braylon Edwards, and Joshua Morgan

Blaine Gabbert-
Gabbert led a poised drive to get the Jaguars ahead late in the fourth quarter but was never able to get the ball back in his hands. Minnesota drove and tied the game and ended it with a field goal in overtime. If not for that many people would have been praising the efforts of Gabbert on the road. He threw almost forty times and did not make a mistake with interceptions. He did that with a cast of receivers many would rank near the bottom of the league.

Running Backs

CJ Spiller-
Spiller was profiled in our one week wonders based on the fact that his game against the Jets will likely be his season high. With Fred Jackson dinged up for awhile, Spiller is going to see an obvious boost of a role. A high value for PPR leagues as he is going to get more plays on the field and become the safety net Fitzpatrick had with Jackson. Spiller may see a load share with Tashard Choice, but should get twelve to fifteen carries for the next month.

Alfred Morris-
It’s not a shock to see Mike Shanahan use a rookie drafted late. The Redskins pounded away with Morris whose yards per carry was not high, but made an impact with each run. It’ll be interesting to see if Shanahan stays with Morris for a great length of the season. For now though you can’t argue with the amount of carries he will receive.

Kendall Hunter-
Before last season Frank Gore had not played a full season since his second year in the NFL. Not many running backs can stay healthy the way Gore runs. San Francisco has an offensive line made to run the football and wear down opposing teams. The balance of the pass and run will be one of the best in the NFL this year, and may be the difference in the 49ers making it to the Super Bowl. This is a two back NFL league now, and Hunter is a top seven backup.

Wide Receivers

Alshon Jeffrey-
People are shocked that the Bears lit up the scoreboard mainly through a dynamic passing game led by Jay Cutler. The Bears have always thrown the football, it’s just now they have the talent to make plays. Instead of seeing Cutler throw a bomb that lands on the grass, chances are higher for completions with big targets Jeffrey and Brandon Marshall.

Coby Fleener-
Familiarity is always a good thing for a rookie, and Luck has that with Fleener. Based on the catches of Reggie Wayne you can say the same for them. Fleener has a knack for getting open and knowing how to shield himself from the defender and be ready for a Luck pass. It’ll take a few games for us to know how the Colts red zone offense will be, but Fleener has the best shot at being Luck’s main target down there.

Andre Roberts
There are only about a dozen teams where a third receiver on a team is fantasy worthy. Roberts may be listed as the Cardinals third receiver, but he is more a part of the Cardinals offense than rookie Michael Floyd. Both Kevin Kolb and John Skelton look for Roberts frequently, and Roberts has responded well. He is more of a Davone Bess type that is not going to break any long gains, but he may end up with a high quality amount of touchdowns. Arizona is not known for their tight ends, and that’s only going to benefit a possession receiver such as Roberts.

Randall Cobb-
Donald Driver may have returned for a last hooray, but much like Hines Ward last year the Packers are going to go with the youngsters. Cobb and James Jones are going to be in the fray of things along with regular starters Jordy Nelson and Greg Jennings. The special abilities of Cobb make him more intriguing for the Packers to involve more, and is why he should be for fantasy owners.

Brandon Lafell-
Carolina may have a great set of running backs at their disposal, but their bread and butter is going to be with the legs and arm of Cam Newton. Steve Smith has done it for quite awhile but defenses are not going to allow Smith to thrash them game after game like they did a year ago. No team was prepared for Newton’s excellence through the air. Now they are, and Lafell is going to be a receiver that can up his value based upon the extra eyes hoarding Smith. Lafell has been a Panther that has fought to get to his level on the team, and seems prepared to have his best year yet.

Donald Jones-
With David Nelson lost for the year, Jones gets to fill his shoes. Based on Buffalo’s defensive collapse for four quarters against the Jets, they may be down plenty of games this season. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a hot/cold quarterback but when he is on he can be a top ten fantasy quarterback.

Andrew Hawkins-
Getting out in the open field with speed still sets yourself apart even in the NFL. Speedsters can make a living besides on special teams, and Hawkins showcased that on Monday Night Football. A young quarterback needs a hot route receiver he can gun the ball too for short yardage plays that can turn into big ones. Hawkins looks like he is going to be a fine replacement for Jerome Simpson.

Sidney Rice-
Rice’s stats and Russell Wilson’s debut were not mind blowing at all. Rice for the first time in a regular season game though looked like he had some of his old self back on display. He made some tough catches for his rookie quarterback. Based on Wilson barely eclipsing over 100 yards, the more comfortable he gets the bigger upside for Rice. Rice is worth a waiver wire scoop now before that big game comes.